Concorde Securities - Erste Group Bank AG Unsurprising Q4 results and stable outlook but nothing special

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Concorde Securities

Szabolcs Pal

Unsurprising Q4 results and stable outlook but nothing special

We have cut down our recommendation to Neutral from the previous BUY because we believe the stock is fairly priced and the current 9.1x P/E is well above its market peers. We roll over and raise our 2025-YE ex-div target price to EUR 64.2 from EUR 61.1, implying a 3.6% TR upside potential including a DPS of EUR 3 over the TP period.

03/03/2025 8 EN

Underlying

Erste Group Bank AG

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AT0000A0QQT2 Budapest Stock Exchange Austria

Provider

Concorde Securities

Concorde Securities Ltd. is Hungary’s leading independent company engaged in investment banking activities. It provides its clients with integrated financial services, including securities trading, research, corporate financing advisory, capital market transactions, wealth management and investment advisory. The operational management of the company is the responsibility of the CEO, while the owners/managers (who control one-third of the company through their shares and options) are in charge of its strategic governance. Concorde Securities Ltd. is a member of the Budapest, Frankfurt, Warsaw and Bucharest stock exchanges, as well as of the Hungarian Association of Investment Service Providers.

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Analysts

Szabolcs Pal

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Concorde Securities

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Erste reported a net income figure of EUR 820 mln, beating market estimate of EUR 757 mln and even our top forecast of EUR 807 mln. Better than exp. results came from the higher operating results while risk provisioning was higher than forecasted (in line though with our estimates). NII was still growing 20% y-o-y and 4% q-o-q. In the previous quarter, there was a negative one-off in HU to the tune of EUR 40 mln, adjusting for that the increase was 1.6% on a quarterly comparison. NIM also improved 10 bps q-o-q and 32 bps y-o-y driven by more optimal balance sheet and euro area margins. Net ...

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Krisztian Karikas

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Duna House posted strong results for Q4 and cleaned core net results came in higher than the management guidance. Revenues increased by 20% YoY in 2024, reported EBITDA came in 67% higher YoY, while cleaned core EBITDA reached HUF 4.8bn, up by 80% YoY. Net profit came in 18% lower YoY, due to lower financial income on cash deposits and higher tax expenses. Cleaned core net income reached HUF 2.4bn (+35% YoY), above the higher range of HUF 2.3bn guidance. The BoD proposed HUF 43.6 DPS after 2024 results, no extraordinary dividend payment in this year which might have disappointed ...

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Unsurprising Q4 results and stable outlook but nothing special

Solid results despite higher cost of risk

Erste - Basically In Line Results, Trends Remain Robust

Solid performance in Q4, new markets are on track

Above guidance results in ‘24, strong mid-term growth strategy announced

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