GDP - 2019 Q1 GDP Growth Reaches Alltime High

Economic growth in Q1 grew 5.3% y-o-y, up from 5.1% in Q4, preliminary figures by the KSH showed today. Detailed figures are expected on 31 May. Working-day adjusted y-o-y figure was a similar, 5.3%.

gdp growth (same quarter in previous year = 100)

Source: CSO, Concorde

KSH said that most sectors contributed to the stellar performance in the first quarter of 2019.

This growth rate exceeds the Bloomberg consensus of 4.9%.

Germany, the largest trading partner of the country had a bounce and a 0.4% q-o-q growth rate for Q1.

 

2019 Q1 figures reflected the continued drop in net goods balance, a reflection of the strength of domestic demand.

Retail sales have grown 6.1% in Q1, backed by the strong real wages (minimum wages grew 8% in January) imply no further marked slowdown.

The long-awaited slowdown in investments could eventually tamper growth rates this year.

While we expect a smaller budget deficit this year than in the last, the government’s recent hints at growth supporting measures may eventually limit the slowdown effect from the fiscal policy’s direction.

Growth in 2019 could fall less than earlier expected, to 4%, based on the stellar Q1 results.

 

 

 

 

Hai Thanh Le Phuong, CFA
Head of Research

CONCORDE SECURITIES LTD.

Alkotás Point
50 Alkotás street, H-1123 Budapest.
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