GDP - 2019 Q3 GDP Growth Continues At Elevated Pace

Economic growth in Q3 rose to 5.0% y-o-y, up from 4.9% in Q2, preliminary figures by the KSH showed today. This growth rate exceeds the Bloomberg consensus of 4.6%. Detailed figures are expected on 29 November. Working-day adjusted y-o-y figure was 4.8%, already reflecting some slowdown from the beginning of the year, compatible with a long-expected deceleration.

gdp growth (same quarter in previous year = 100)

Source: CSO, Concorde

KSH said that most sectors contributed to the stellar performance (they did not mention agriculture and public services).

Germany, the largest trading partner of the country had a modest uptick in Q3 growth (+0.1% q-o-q), avoiding recession.

Bucking the slowdown trend in the EZ, domestic industrial activity has been strong. This decoupling has been the reflection of the outsourcing activity of core EZ industries in the periphery as they try to squeeze costs. The growth came primarily from electrical appliances and machinery.

2019 Q3 figures in Hungary reflected a y-o-y improvement in net goods balance, and also, signs of sturdy domestic demand.

 

 

industrial production (y-o-y, rhs) and german ifo expectations

Source: CSO, Concorde

Retail sales have grown 6.8% in Q3, on our estimate, backed by the strong wage growth.

retail sales and consumption growth (same quarter in previous year = 100)

Source: CSO, Concorde

The strong domestic and external developments may mask a temporary positive constellation, and the long-expected slowdown in investments could eventually tamper growth rates in Q4 and next year.

Growth in 2019 reach 4.8%.

 

 

 

 

 

Hai Thanh Le Phuong, CFA
Head of Research

CONCORDE SECURITIES LTD.

Alkotás Point
50 Alkotás street, H-1123 Budapest.
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