Hungary GDP grew in Q4 as domestic demand remained strong - Macrocomment from Concorde Securities

Economic growth in Q4 was revised up to 5.1% y-o-y, from the flash estimate’s 5.0%, equal to the growth rate recorded in Q3.

gdp growth (same quarter in previous year = 100)

Source: CSO, Concorde

Main features of the Q4 economic growth are:

• household consumption was strong, and decelerated only mildly from the previous growth rates;
• investments slowed somewhat, but grew vividly on the back of EU-financed and state-sponsored infrastructural projects;
• services and construction remained strong, though lost some momentum from the previous quarter.
• Manufacturing rose at a speed of 4.3% y-o-y  in Q4.
• The accelerating dynamics in agriculture’s value added completes the picture.

level of industrial output (2001 dec = 100)

Source: CSO, Concorde

Ifo institute’s latest releases of German manufacturers’ outlook have shown marked volatility, and a steep drop by the end of last year. Having been broadly indicative of the Hungarian industrial production figures, we estimate a deceleration in industrial production during Q1. The impact of the strikes at Audi’s Hungarian plant may strengthen the correlation in Q1.