Macro Flash: HU inflation

HU CPI: 24.0% in April, in line with the consensus
April CPI: slightly accelerating disinflation, as expected
 Y/Y: 24.0% (Bloomberg consensus: 24.1%, previous: 25.2%)
 M/M: 0.7% (Bloomberg consensus: 0.7%, previous: 0.8% )
The y/y CPI index moved lower in the third consecutive month. This time it was a 1.2pps shift, not just a few
tenth of a percentage point. The decrease is still not large compared to the high inflation rate, but:
- The m/m rise was also smaller: this is closely monitored by the central bank and the normalization
of the monthly re-pricing rate continued,
- Core inflation also moved lower, to 24.8% (24.7% tax-adjusted) following the 25%+ levels of Q1
and a new peak in March, and the April m/m index also significantly smaller,
- Food inflation was 0,0% m/m versus the 1.9% average of Q1 – the break strong growth was a key
driver of the overall improvement in April.
Services prices still represent an unfavourable factor though, with a m/m rate above the double of the average
at 1.7%. However, this was also still slightly lower than in March. In the case of household energy, the CSO
reported a drop of 0.8%, much smaller than in Q1. That is still the result of the changing proportion of
consumers below and above the average consumption. Looking at the past one year, household energy and
food prices continued to rise the most.