Looks a huge beat but it is much less than it seems..+ weak guidance

MOL significantly beat consensus on every P&L level, starting from Clean CCS
EBITDA to profit level by 15% and 150% thanks to large intersegment income (+USD 90m
that used to be –USD 10m) which is expected to be reverted in H2. Excluding that, Clean
CCS EBITDA still should have arrived slightly higher than consensus by ca 3% as a result
of stronger gas midstream (+52% vs. consensus). Below EBITDA, CCS modification (+
USD 50m vs. cons.) gains on net financials (+USD 80m vs. cons) and negative tax expense
(+USD 24m vs. cons) all contributed to elevated net profit vs. expectations. All in all,
adjusting for that, MOL’s Q2 clean earnings came slightly better than expected.

o MOL gave a FY CCS EBITDA outlook (USD 2.5 bn vs. H1: USD 1.1 bn) which is ca.
17% below the FY consensus as a result of heavy government taxes. We think headline
numbers are attractive and may trigger positive share price reaction at first, but below the
hood underlying operation is less bright especially taking into account the weak FY CCS
EBITDA guidance. Please note that with USD 2.5 bn FY EBITDA MOL EV/EBITDA’23
should be around 4x significantly above PKN or OMV’s 2.5x.