MOL - Model Update – Controlled Phase Out Of Russian Oil Can Be Manageable
We set our ex-dividend 2026 year-end target price at HUF 3,660, implying an 8.2% total returnincluding our estimated HUF 300 dividend to be paid after the 2025 financial year. Accordingly,
we revise our recommendation from Accumulate to Neutral, reflecting current market conditions,
as well as company-specific event risks. Russian crude availability remains the most influential
factor in our view. Our previous base case assumed gradual normalization, with Russian oil
remaining available. Our new base case assumes a managed phase-out of Russian crude by
2028 with partial cost pass-through to customers, which appears far less detrimental than the
previously feared scenario of an immediate loss of Russian supply without the ability to pass
through higher costs—although such an outcome cannot be fully excluded. Depending on the
outcome related to Russian oil supply, our target price ranges between HUF 2,770–3,880,
suggesting limited upside and relatively greater downside risk.
Magyar Olaj-Es Gazipari is an integrated oil and gas enterprise based in Hungary and active in central and eastern Europe. Co.'s core activities include: exploration and production of crude oil, natural gas and gas products; refining, transportation, storage and distribution of crude oil products in both retail and wholesale markets; importation, transportation, storage and wholesale trading of natural gas and other gas products; and the production and sale of olefins and polyolefins. TVK, the petrochemical affiliate of Co., is an olefin and polyolefin producer in Hungary.
Concorde Securities Ltd. is Hungary’s leading independent company engaged in investment banking activities. It provides its clients with integrated financial services, including securities trading, research, corporate financing advisory, capital market transactions, wealth management and investment advisory. The operational management of the company is the responsibility of the CEO, while the owners/managers (who control one-third of the company through their shares and options) are in charge of its strategic governance. Concorde Securities Ltd. is a member of the Budapest, Frankfurt, Warsaw and Bucharest stock exchanges, as well as of the Hungarian Association of Investment Service Providers.
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