Missed EBITDA consensus on upstream due to a timing issue
Summary:
- MOL missed the CCS clean EBITDA consensus estimates by 3%, the main negative surprise came from the upstream segment where EBITDA was weaker than the consensus by 19% due to mainly a one off which will reverse in 2021, adjusting for that Q4 EBITDA would have exceeded consensus by 2%. Profit arrived to HUF 17.3bn vs the consensus of HUF 21 bn -18%.
- Still, FY EBITDA came significantly above management FY expectation of USD 1.9 bn by 7% reaching USD 2.05 bn, though it was widely expected (BBG consensus USD 2.03 bn). Since CAPEX came lower than guided, simplified FCF was strong and arrived to USD 636 m.
- Management gave a conservative guidance with very conservative set of macro assumptions (oil price at 50 USD/bbl; now > 60 USD/bbl, refining margin at 3.5 USD/bbl; now at 1.8 USD/bbl, petchem margin at 350 EUR/t; now at 550 EUR/t) with which FY CCS EBITDA is expected to reach USD 2.3 bn. Organic CAPEX is forecasted to increase from a low base of 2020 to USD 1.8 bn leaving lower simplified FCF of USD 0.5 bn than this year.
Magyar Olaj-Es Gazipari is an integrated oil and gas enterprise based in Hungary and active in central and eastern Europe. Co.'s core activities include: exploration and production of crude oil, natural gas and gas products; refining, transportation, storage and distribution of crude oil products in both retail and wholesale markets; importation, transportation, storage and wholesale trading of natural gas and other gas products; and the production and sale of olefins and polyolefins. TVK, the petrochemical affiliate of Co., is an olefin and polyolefin producer in Hungary.
Concorde Securities Ltd. is Hungary’s leading independent company engaged in investment banking activities. It provides its clients with integrated financial services, including securities trading, research, corporate financing advisory, capital market transactions, wealth management and investment advisory. The operational management of the company is the responsibility of the CEO, while the owners/managers (who control one-third of the company through their shares and options) are in charge of its strategic governance. Concorde Securities Ltd. is a member of the Budapest, Frankfurt, Warsaw and Bucharest stock exchanges, as well as of the Hungarian Association of Investment Service Providers.
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