Model update – EPS surprise on the horizon for ‘25
TP is rolled over to Dec-25 and raised to 28,245 HUF/sh before 2024 earnings, scheduledfor 7 March, implying a 18% TR upside potential incl. a DPS of HUF 960. This reflects that
NII and NF&C growth may surprise to the upside in 2025. However, given the limited upside
potential, we downgrade our recommendation to Accumulate from Buy. We assume that
OTP will pay out 25% of 2024 profit this year, offering a DivY of 3.9% at Friday’s closing price.
OTP is currently running its 3rd HUF 60bn SBB program since February 2024 and may finish it
in the coming two weeks. The de-escalation of the RU-UKR war or peace talks between the
two assisted by the US may work as a tailwind, but a positive outcome is broadly priced in
OTP Bank is a financial institution based in Hungary. Co. is engaged in retail banking (account management, bankcards and Electronic sevices - OTPdirekt) corporate banking and private banking. In Hungary traditional banking operations are performed by Co. while specialized services, including car leasing, investment funds and insurance are developed and offered by Co.'s subsidiaries. Co. expands its operations throughout the region via its foreign subsidiaries. As of Dec 31 2011, Co. had total assets of HUF10,200,527,000,000 and deposits of HUF6,398,853,000,000.
Concorde Securities Ltd. is Hungary’s leading independent company engaged in investment banking activities. It provides its clients with integrated financial services, including securities trading, research, corporate financing advisory, capital market transactions, wealth management and investment advisory. The operational management of the company is the responsibility of the CEO, while the owners/managers (who control one-third of the company through their shares and options) are in charge of its strategic governance. Concorde Securities Ltd. is a member of the Budapest, Frankfurt, Warsaw and Bucharest stock exchanges, as well as of the Hungarian Association of Investment Service Providers.
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