The Rear-View Mirror – EME markets: EME indices mostly in the red in April

EME Equity Market – April 2025 EME indices mostly in the red in April, Hungarian BUX and Greek ASE the exceptions. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 2.0% mom in EUR terms, but was up 2.9% mom in USD terms in April. The Hungarian BUX was the best performer, followed by the Greek ASE index (+3.5% and 0.8% mom in EUR terms, respectively). There was a slight decline in the Polish WIG20, and more pronounced deteriorations in the Romanian BET and Czech PX indices (-0.6%, -2.0% and -4.2% mom in EUR terms, respectively). The Turkish ISE30 Index was, again, the worst performer (-12.0% mom in EUR ter...

ODDO BHF SECURITIES LARGE CAPS MORNING NEWS 04/30/2025

ODDO BHF SECURITIES LARGE CAPS MORNING NEWS 30/04/2025

Guidance beat, trends remain unchanged in Q4

Key message: Waberer’s reported a consolidated EBIT for 2024 of EUR 45.0mn, which translates into a 5% increase compared to 2023. As a result, the management delivered its full-year EBIT guidance of EUR 40mn+. The report lacked forward looking statements but Waberer’s will hold an Investor Day on Friday.

Italian intermediation is on the rise

We have revised our forecast for Duna House and incorporated the recent developments over the last year. We set our new 12-m ex-div TP at HUF 1,137, implying 9% upside potential and 14% total return potential, including the next dividend payment. Despite the TR potential exceeding 10% now, we change our recommendation to Neutral due to the lack of short-term catalysts.

Strong fundamentals with limited downside risks

We cut our Dec-25 TP to 32.1 RON per share, but remain Buy rated on the stock, implying 20% upside potential including our estimated DPS of 2.1 RON. This reflects the bank’s strong capital returns. Last year TLV was active in M&A in the Romanian and Moldovan markets as they acquired OTP Bank Romania and BCR Chișinău. More importantly, around 95% of OTP customers are already with BT as of the announcement of the 2024 results. As a result, the management expects significant loan and deposit growth from the merger which will likely materialize in Q1 2025. The macro outlook is also favouring the b...