ODDO BHF SECURITIES Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS – 01/19/2026

ODDO BHF SECURITIES Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS – 19/01/2026

Transgaz : Lack of new triggers after the share price rally supports our rating downgrade

Petrom - OMV Petrom In Line With Expectations; 5.8% Dividend Yield

Opinion: Overall, the quarterly results were positive and in line with expectations. The strategy update is a constructive step. The dividend remains defensive due to elevated CAPEX, but this high CAPEX is temporary. While some negative regulatory measures remain in place and new ones are emerging in the form of a higher royalty burden, which triggered the impairment . Initial commentary on the exploration well in Bulgaria sounded negative.

OMV - OMV Is Delivering on consensus and pays EUR 4.40 Dividend

OMV reported Clean CCS EBIT of EUR 1,153 mn in Q4 2025, down 9% QoQ and 16% YoY. This was slightly below the analyst consensus of EUR 1,168 mn, but above Concorde’s estimate of EUR 1,127 mn. Clean CCS profit attributable to shareholders reached EUR 548 mn, in line with our expectations and above the consensus of EUR 491 mn, as many analysts appear to have overlooked the unusually low minority interest in the quarter. This reflects the fact that the largest impairment was booked in Romania, where OMV owns 51%, resulting in a relatively high minority interest impact.

Halfway out of the turbulence

Summary We leave our TP at 20.0 GBP and reiterate our Buy recommendation, reflecting the ongoing restructuring story. Following the fiscal Q3/26 conference call held on 29 January, we repeatedly concluded that the fruitful strategic overhaul is under way. The management is building back confidence, so that’s good news for value investors. The problem is that they have to manage high-capacity growth (+24% seats and +30% ASK) during fiscal Q2/27. Key question remains how the market will be able to absorb this substantial capacity. Establishing the Israeli base or a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire and...