Model update after Q1 KPIs out

Wizz Air will report its fiscal Q1/24 earnings on the 3rd of August, BMO. We lift our
estimates for the June-Q, yet to stay well below consensus by 7% on sales and 30% on
EBITDA (YoY changes are not comparable). We leave our estimates unchanged for the rest
of the fiscal year and onwards.
 Wizz Air operated c.126% of Q1/23 ASKs, and carried 15.3mn passengers at a load factor
of 91.2% in the June-Q. Seat capacity, passenger number and ASKs fell short of our
previous estimate by low single-digit, whereas load factor improved faster-than-expected
(vs. our forecast of 91%).
 EBIT may amount to EUR -1mn, based on our estimates, far below the consensus of EUR
53mn. The difference mainly stems from lower revenues as we see that the consensus was
more upbeat on traffic growth. On the costs’ side, we lowered our estimate for other costs
as disruption costs may have dropped in some extent due to improving punctuality.
 On the net level, we raise our estimates due to the less than earlier expected non-cash FX
loss as EURUSD finished flat QoQ. Overall, net loss may total EUR -17mn vs. Bloomberg
consensus of EUR +32m.
 Due to the high consensus figures, we are looking forward to gradual analyst downgrades
or downward earnings revisions in the coming weeks. We think that the market anticipated
higher traffic growth and passenger volume for the quarter ended on 30 June, while ASK
growth was only up 26% on our estimate, slightly below the guidance of +30% ASK growth
for fiscal H1 compared to the same period of last year. This indicates a more robust rampup in traffic for the current peak summer quarter, but we are a bit cautious how this will play
out.