Q1 2019 Global Macro Outlook
- Global GDP to advance at much slower 2.0% to 2.3% in 2019
- Global inflation to drop under 3.5%, US under 2.0%, EU under 2%
- US economy to slow toward 1.7% to +2.2% in Q1, embedded USD-strength to weigh on trade, tourism, FDI
- US presidency and government policies (Mueller investigation; labor; trade; social) continue negatively impact US assets & cause further outflows
- EU GDP in Q1 to slow towards 10% to 1.2% growth, expect Q1 and full year 2019 downward revisions
- Chinese GDP in Q1 will stay on track for 4.0% to 5.0% growth
- Chinese assets/equities being oversold and very cheap will attract more in-flows in Q1 and throughout 2019
- 10-Year US Treasury yields will drop below market expectations in Q1 (our 2019 low target for $TNX is 2.00%)
- USD will decline towards 90 in 1H 2019, EURUSD will move higher towards 1.22 within 1H of it’s 20th birthday-year
- Commodities & Oil (2019 high price target WTI $78) will move significantly higher in Q1
- US November election outcome has proven to be a temporary top for global equities as anticipated
- Global Equities likely to continue to decline by -5% to -8% in Q1 and underperform Global & US Government Bonds
- EAFE (EU, China and Japan particularly due to period of seasonal strength, annual dividends) and EM equities to outperform US equities in Q1
- For equity investors we recommend to Overweight in the following sectors: Industrial, Material, Energy, Utilities
Creative Global Investments LLC (CGI) is a Multi asset Investment Strategy & Investment Research firm. Our focus is on providing a multi asset investment strategy research based on a proprietary dynamic research process.
It identifies major themes with implications for the global financial markets and provides projections of aggregate corporate profits, valuation, profit margin, size and style trends, and long-term targets of the major equity indices. We apply fundamental, empirical, and technical research to complement its thematic and macro-driven approach. Additionally, an analytical and quantitative approach to provide a macro-economic framework, and create forecasts and projections of economic growth, inflation, and short and long-term interest rates.
We identify the sectors and industry groups most impacted by future legislative and regulatory actions, within the context of the dynamic political environment. CGI offers insights on the changing policy landscape and the risks and opportunities, utilizing contacts within the public and private sectors to provide information, to identify investment opportunity.
We have developed and fine-tuned a dynamic 6-step combination investment strategy and research methodology and process, which is integral to all Creative Global Investments LLC client research by order of priority:
- Global Macro Analysis Overlay
- Chart Technical Analysis
- Seasonality Analysis
- Fundamental Analysis
- Investor Behavioral Analytics
- Geo-political risk assessment
We can also provide customized and specific research solutions and special projects, besides capital market and corporate advisory services for private equity firms.
Our research product and regular periodic publications for various asset classes include annual and quarterly Investment Outlook & Strategy reports, weekly Strategy reports per asset class, thematic reports, sentiment indicator, which helps in analyzing the trajectory of market, sector and industry group trends. CGI caters to global institutional fixed income and equity clients.
CGI LLC was founded in 2002, and is based in New York, New York, with additional offices in Luxemburg and Croatia.
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