Q4 2018 Global Investment Outlook & Strategy
- The global economy is decelerating further in Q4 due to less stimuli and due to trade penalties and geopolitical distress Productivity growth to improve slower due to labor,
financial and product markets reforms in place, particl.Europe, Investment to slow (modernization of capital stock) - Globally, equities still offer decent risk return opportunities for Q4 2018 of all asset classes, particularly from an DDM and total return aspect § A Q4 historical move of +7% is likely, mostly for developed markets, but also for select EM’s.
- We are expecting US equities to underperform EAFE until yearend.
- We expect for US, European and Asian 10-Y government bond yields to rise, but remain in their long term trend range throughout Q4 2018.
We do not expect another Fed rate hike in Q4 2018, mainly due to the FED’s concern on a likely temporary strengthening impact it could have on the USD. - Commodities, particularly energy, OIL, Nat Gas still have upside, we see the potential for +15% price recovery in Q4, particularly on OPEC deal to extend production cuts further throughout rest of 2018.
Base metal prices are in a cyclical recovery. Global supply developments will lead Copper, Zinc and Nickel significantly higher in the next two years. - We expect a reversal in the USD Index back towards below .90, and for EURUSD 1.22 by end of 2018, commodities based currencies to add another +7% to +10% against the USD by year-end 2018. Yuan as currency reserve will continue attracting global flows into China, Petro Yuan issuance will weigh more on USD. USJPY to move to 115 by end of Q4 2018
Creative Global Investments LLC (CGI) is a Multi asset Investment Strategy & Investment Research firm. Our focus is on providing a multi asset investment strategy research based on a proprietary dynamic research process.
It identifies major themes with implications for the global financial markets and provides projections of aggregate corporate profits, valuation, profit margin, size and style trends, and long-term targets of the major equity indices. We apply fundamental, empirical, and technical research to complement its thematic and macro-driven approach. Additionally, an analytical and quantitative approach to provide a macro-economic framework, and create forecasts and projections of economic growth, inflation, and short and long-term interest rates.
We identify the sectors and industry groups most impacted by future legislative and regulatory actions, within the context of the dynamic political environment. CGI offers insights on the changing policy landscape and the risks and opportunities, utilizing contacts within the public and private sectors to provide information, to identify investment opportunity.
We have developed and fine-tuned a dynamic 6-step combination investment strategy and research methodology and process, which is integral to all Creative Global Investments LLC client research by order of priority:
- Global Macro Analysis Overlay
- Chart Technical Analysis
- Seasonality Analysis
- Fundamental Analysis
- Investor Behavioral Analytics
- Geo-political risk assessment
We can also provide customized and specific research solutions and special projects, besides capital market and corporate advisory services for private equity firms.
Our research product and regular periodic publications for various asset classes include annual and quarterly Investment Outlook & Strategy reports, weekly Strategy reports per asset class, thematic reports, sentiment indicator, which helps in analyzing the trajectory of market, sector and industry group trends. CGI caters to global institutional fixed income and equity clients.
CGI LLC was founded in 2002, and is based in New York, New York, with additional offices in Luxemburg and Croatia.
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Browse all ResearchPool reportsReport is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.