AAK (Buy, TP: SEK360.00) - 2030 targets in focus

We are positive ahead of the CMD, scheduled to begin at 09:00 CET on 26 November, expecting AAK to raise its 2030 EBIT/kg target to >SEK3/kg and reiterate its ambition to outgrow the market in volumes and >10% EBIT growth p.a. We find consensus 2025–2026e EBIT low, at c3–5%, and believe clarity on structural margin improvements would be positive. We also expect focus on capital allocation, with AAK set to be net cash positive in early 2025e. We reiterate our BUY and SEK360 target price.

6% FCF yield while waiting for a recovery

While waiting for Pemex

With outstanding Pemex receivables equal to around five quarters of revenues, key for offshore drillers with Pemex exposure (Paratus and Borr Drilling) is to start to collect or monetise receivables during the next few months. Although Pemex is in a challenging financial situation with declining production, local reports and statements from the Mexican president suggest suppliers should start to get paid by March. For Paratus and Borr Drilling, payments would be a relief, while continued delays would add uncertainty and likely weigh on the share prices.

Konecranes (Buy, TP: EUR75.00) - Much of the same into 2025e

We have raised our 2024–2026e clean EPS by c1% on average and reiterate our BUY and EUR75 target price. Our Q4e orders are a bit above consensus, but 2025e orders and clean EBITA are close.