Volume signals mixed, EBIT/kg story intact

Mix improved further

AAK (Buy, TP: SEK370.00) - Still-solid CBE appetite

Q4 marked a strong end to 2024, with 19% growth in adj. EBIT YOY (following 43% in 2023), well above the full-year guidance of >10%. Although there were signs of weaker end-consumer demand in the wider chocolate market in Q4, we expect strong demand for cocoa butter equivalents (CBEs) in 2025 and AAK’s new contracts to be supportive of earnings on our view that price/mix is likely to offset weaker volumes. We reiterate our BUY and SEK370 target price.

AAK (Buy, TP: SEK370.00) - Neutral Q4 results

We consider this a neutral report for AAK, including slightly better Q4 results, but with lower-than-expected volumes as EBIT growth was driven by better than expected EBIT/kg results. We expect limited changes to consensus 2025e adj. EBIT and a neutral share-price reaction following the results.

Further mix improvements, but volumes lower

Up to BUY on better visibility

AAK (Buy, TP: SEK370.00) - Set for another rich CBE year

We are neutral ahead of the Q4 results (due at 08:30 CET on 5 February), as we are in line with consensus on adj. EBIT. However, given cocoa prices reaching new all-time highs in the past few weeks, and AAK’s position in CBEs and its strong balance sheet, we continue to like the case. We reiterate our BUY, and have raised our target price to SEK370 (360), mainly due to increased estimates.

AAK (Buy, TP: SEK360.00) - 2030 targets in focus

We are positive ahead of the CMD, scheduled to begin at 09:00 CET on 26 November, expecting AAK to raise its 2030 EBIT/kg target to >SEK3/kg and reiterate its ambition to outgrow the market in volumes and >10% EBIT growth p.a. We find consensus 2025–2026e EBIT low, at c3–5%, and believe clarity on structural margin improvements would be positive. We also expect focus on capital allocation, with AAK set to be net cash positive in early 2025e. We reiterate our BUY and SEK360 target price.

6% FCF yield while waiting for a recovery

Q3: Softer than expected on nearly all line items

AAK (Buy, TP: SEK360.00) - Strong prices lead to good profits

Q3 marked yet another strong quarter for AAK, with EBIT/kg above its 2030 ambition for the fifth quarter in a row along with continue strong volumes growth, especially for its CCF business, driven by cocoa butter alternatives. With cocoa prices still at record highs, we expect AAK to still benefit from this going into 2025. We reiterate our BUY and SEK360 target price.

Another jump in CCF EBIT/kg

Volume growth all over, but approaching tougher comps

AAK divests North American foodservice

Awaiting the light at the end of the tunnel

Construction activity and sentiment at a low point. '24e-'26e EBIT down 6-1%. BUY – over 55% upside at ~6% '25e lease adj. FCF yield.

Heads-up for report 24 October

AAK (Buy, TP: SEK360.00) - 2025 earnings visibility improving

We are c2% above consensus on Q3e adj. EBIT, largely explained by volume momentum in Chocolate and Confectionery Fats (CCF) aided by the ongoing shift to cocoa butter alternatives. We expect outlook comments on contract renegotiations and capital allocations to be in focus. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK360 (335) on our higher estimates.

Choc and roll

Q2 miss does not dent fundamentals

Renovation the key growth driver until new construction rebounds. '24e-'26e EBIT down 6-4%. Reiterate BUY – 30% upside remains.

Expects H2-heavy 2024 after weak report