AAK (Buy, TP: SEK360.00) - 2030 targets in focus

We are positive ahead of the CMD, scheduled to begin at 09:00 CET on 26 November, expecting AAK to raise its 2030 EBIT/kg target to >SEK3/kg and reiterate its ambition to outgrow the market in volumes and >10% EBIT growth p.a. We find consensus 2025–2026e EBIT low, at c3–5%, and believe clarity on structural margin improvements would be positive. We also expect focus on capital allocation, with AAK set to be net cash positive in early 2025e. We reiterate our BUY and SEK360 target price.

6% FCF yield while waiting for a recovery

Q3: Softer than expected on nearly all line items

AAK (Buy, TP: SEK360.00) - Strong prices lead to good profits

Q3 marked yet another strong quarter for AAK, with EBIT/kg above its 2030 ambition for the fifth quarter in a row along with continue strong volumes growth, especially for its CCF business, driven by cocoa butter alternatives. With cocoa prices still at record highs, we expect AAK to still benefit from this going into 2025. We reiterate our BUY and SEK360 target price.

Another jump in CCF EBIT/kg

Volume growth all over, but approaching tougher comps

AAK divests North American foodservice

Awaiting the light at the end of the tunnel

Construction activity and sentiment at a low point. '24e-'26e EBIT down 6-1%. BUY – over 55% upside at ~6% '25e lease adj. FCF yield.

Heads-up for report 24 October

AAK (Buy, TP: SEK360.00) - 2025 earnings visibility improving

We are c2% above consensus on Q3e adj. EBIT, largely explained by volume momentum in Chocolate and Confectionery Fats (CCF) aided by the ongoing shift to cocoa butter alternatives. We expect outlook comments on contract renegotiations and capital allocations to be in focus. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK360 (335) on our higher estimates.

Choc and roll

Q2 miss does not dent fundamentals

Renovation the key growth driver until new construction rebounds. '24e-'26e EBIT down 6-4%. Reiterate BUY – 30% upside remains.

Expects H2-heavy 2024 after weak report

AAK (Buy, TP: SEK335.00) - Cocoa alternatives still on the rise

The in-line Q2 marked the fourth quarter in a row with EBIT/kg above AAK’s 2030 ambition and the second quarter with volume growth. With cocoa butter prices at record highs, we expect AAK to benefit from still-strong demand for its CCF products (14% volume growth in Q2) as it continues to help its customers into non-cocoa solutions. We reiterate our BUY and SEK335 target price.

Cocoa prices do not deter customers

Q2 showed strong CCF volume growth. We extrapolate softer Food Ingredients EBIT/kg with '24-'25e EBIT down 3-1%: We keep HOLD and adjust our TP to SEK 320 (330).

AAK (Buy, TP: SEK335.00) - Neutral Q2 report

We consider this a neutral report for AAK, including figures more or less in line with consensus. However, we find the 14% organic volume growth YOY in Chocolate & Confectionery Fats (CCF) strong.

Strong CCF volume growth

Profit tailwind about to end, down to HOLD

Report due 18 July. We forecast volumes of 531 ktonnes, adj. EBIT of SEK 1.2bn. Downgrade to HOLD (Buy) on valuation and profit slowdown.

Green light to BUY

Regulatory tailwinds to boost organic growth. '24e-'26e EBIT CAGR of 10%. We initiate coverage with BUY – 30% upside.

AAK (Buy, TP: SEK335.00) - FCF focus on cocoa madness

We expect AAK to continue to benefit from the surge in cocoa prices as it prompts its customers to shift product formulations and potentially changes its sales mix towards products with less cocoa (typically higher-margin for AAK). We reiterate our BUY but have raised our target price to SEK335 (295), reflecting current FCF.