EUR 465.52 For Business Accounts Only

Yubico Minor model adjustments

Ahead of Yubico’s Q2 results (due on 15 August), we expect still-strong 48% organic bookings growth YOY, with EBIT 4% above a thin Bloomberg consensus (stripping out our contribution). Amid a recent escalation of large-scale cyber threats (United Health’s attack, estimated to cost ~USD1.5bn, and CDK Global’s attack, which affected 15,000 North American car dealerships), the need for modern, phishing-resistant MFA has become increasingly evident, and we expect notable strength from financial services. We have lowered our 2024–2025e EPS by 5–0% (2%-points of which comes from FX) to factor in the recent strength in subscription bookings, where revenues are recognised over a longer contract time, while our underlying bookings forecasts are unchanged. We do not consider these changes to be material and have not changed our BUY recommendation. We reiterate our SEK280 target price as, although investors’ expectations have come up, we expect Yubico to rapidly compress valuation multiples from 66% EPS growth in 2024e.