Up to BUY - excessive share price fall

Mixed upside potential, despite market recovery expectations

Pent-up demand and falling interest rates remain the backbone for newbuild recovery expectations. However, as the recovery has not yet started, property developers screen as the most attractive long-term, but visibility remains mixed. Diversified construction companies are more attractive on near-term P/Es, although many seem to be fully valued on solid share-price performance over the past six months. We maintain a neutral sector view; NCC and Skanska are our top picks.

AF Gruppen (Sell, TP: NOK120.00) - Q1 results are secondary

Given the E4 Bypass Stockholm project cancellation and the filing of fraud charges with the Swedish police by Trafikverket, our focus will be on the company’s position in Sweden, not its Q1 results. AF Gruppen has released limited details on the Trafikverket situation and has denied the charges. Ahead of the results (due at 07:00 CET on 15 May), we are below consensus on Q1e EBIT, despite being at the consensus midpoint. We reiterate our SELL and NOK120 target price.

Humana (Buy, TP: SEK52.00) - Growth agenda back in focus

The Q1 results were mixed, but with the financials now in good order, we see more of a growth focus ahead. We find management’s priorities logical, with our underlying forecast largely unchanged, but our 2025–2027e EPS cut by 6–2% on FX and non-cash items. We reiterate our BUY, but have trimmed our target price to SEK52 (53), focusing on Humana’s market opportunity, operating profile, financial outlook and valuation.

Lime Technologies (Sell, TP: SEK355.00) - Remain cautious

Softness in Expert Services kept organic growth at only 10%, and with the macroeconomic uncertainty, we see a risk that weaker growth will continue in the coming quarters. We reiterate our SELL and SEK355 target price.

Netel Group Holding (Buy, TP: SEK18.00) - Solid outlook for 2025

Q1 offered further signs of good progress towards reducing volatility and improving performances across its operations, albeit in a seasonally small (start-up) quarter. We still see solid demand fundamentals and Netel further rebuilding its financial capacity in 2025. Lowering its financial targets looks logical to us, despite triggering 12–13% cuts to our 2026–2027e EPS. We still like the stock (2025–2027e FCF yield of 13–23%), and reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to SEK18 (22).