Energy Morning - 15 October 2024

Q3 was probably a strong FCF quarter

Elkem (Hold, TP: NOK22.00) - Silicones overcapacity still an issue

We expect group Q3 EBITDA of NOK1,078m (4% below consensus), including NOK140m from Silicones, driven by smaller improvements in the European market. However, given overcapacity in silicones, weak end-market demand and muted commodity prices, we do not expect a material earnings boost in the coming years. We reiterate our HOLD and NOK22 target price. The Q3 results are due at 07:00 CET on 24 October.

Tomra (Sell, TP: NOK95.00) - Next stop, Poland

We estimate Q3 EBITA of EUR45m (results due at 07:00 CET on 22 October), with EPS of EUR0.09 (consensus EUR0.07). While we have raised our 2025–2026e EPS by 1%, we still see the stock as overvalued, as we believe its growth potential does not justify a 2024e P/E of 43x. We see downside risk to market expectations for Poland’s implementation in 2025-2026, and also the rest of EU. We reiterate our SELL and NOK95 target price.

Arctic Bioscience (Hold, TP: NOK15.00) - HeROPA-trial results

Arctic Bioscience announced results for the HeROPA trial (mild-to moderate psoriasis). While the results did not include detailed data, it was clear that the trial did not meet the primary endpoint (The proportion of patients with ≥50% reduction in Psoriasis Area and Severity Index (PASI50) from baseline to week 26). The failure to meet the primary endpoint was partly explained by an unexpectedly high effect rate in the placebo group (comparisons between HRO350 2,100 mg and placebo, and HRO350 1,050 mg and placebo were conducted). This is a dramatic setback for the company, in our view, since ...