Aker BP (Buy, TP: NOK365.00) - Set for a solid year-end
We forecast Q4 production of 477kboed, leaving 2023 production at 465kboed, at the upper end of the 455–465kboed guidance. Our Q4e EBITDA is USD3,229m, ~3% below Bloomberg consensus. We expect consensus to come down slightly in the coming weeks, as Q4 oil and gas price assumptions are likely to be revised lower. For 2024, we estimate net production of 453kboed, broadly in line with consensus and the company’s outlook. We expect Aker BP to increase its DPS for 2024 by c10% YOY to USD0.60 (equalling ~9% yield). We reiterate our BUY and target price of NOK365.Aker BP ASA engages in the exploration, development, and production of petroleum resources on the Norwegian Shelf. In addition, Co. has a separate Johan Sverdrup business unit to manage its interest.
DNB Markets is the investment banking arm of DNB Bank ASA and is focused primarily on the Nordic region, as well as internationally on niches such as global shipping, energy and related services, and seafood. DNB Markets offers services in FICC, Equities and Investment Banking advisory from offices in Oslo, Stockholm, London, Singapore and New York. Equity research coverage is offered on c250 Nordic companies. DNB was ranked no.2 in Extel Nordic Research 2017. The DNB Markets’ Credit and FICC Macro & FX Research teams are repeatedly highly rated by Prospera Nordic Institutional Investor Surveys.
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