Aker Solutions (Hold, TP: NOK40.00) - Probably dead money for a while
Despite Q1 EBITDA 25% above consensus (but in line with our estimate) and 2024e EBITDA c10% higher on updated guidance, we struggle to get excited about the story. The investment case suffers from a lack of financial details for the OneSubsea JV, which we believe investors would need to support a higher valuation. Meanwhile, a forecast working capital unwind and weak cash transition would probably be in focus. We also sense growing concern about the 2026+ outlook as Norway projects end, and backlog coverage is thin and prospects few. We reiterate our HOLD and NOK40 target price.Aker Solutions is a provider of products, systems and services to the oil and gas industry. Through its subsidiaries, Co. is engaged in the field of engineering, design and technology aimed at improving production and recovery. Co. has 3 reportable segments which are the strategic business units of the group: Engineering Solutions (provides concept and front-end studies to oil companies), Product Solutions (delivers oilfield products for the entire upstream value chain, from reservoir through processing), and Field-Life Solutions (offers a range of services, which has the ultimate objective to increase oil and gas recovery from existing fields and extend the operating life of field assets).
DNB Markets is the investment banking arm of DNB Bank ASA and is focused primarily on the Nordic region, as well as internationally on niches such as global shipping, energy and related services, and seafood. DNB Markets offers services in FICC, Equities and Investment Banking advisory from offices in Oslo, Stockholm, London, Singapore and New York. Equity research coverage is offered on c250 Nordic companies. DNB was ranked no.2 in Extel Nordic Research 2017. The DNB Markets’ Credit and FICC Macro & FX Research teams are repeatedly highly rated by Prospera Nordic Institutional Investor Surveys.
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