Germany: Investing its way back to growth

Cool deal

Alfa Laval (Buy, TP: SEK565.00) - Pumped and profitable

We are 2–4% below consensus on Q1 orders, sales and adj. EBITA, and expect the Q2 demand guidance to be “somewhat lower” QOQ due to Marine. Despite a 2025e Marine organic order decline of c20% YOY, we expect the division’s margin to gradually improve through the year as the high-margin pumping systems backlog is executed (driving 20% YOY growth in group adj. EBITA). We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to SEK565 (590), having lowered our 2025–2026e adj. EBITA by c4–5% on FX moves.

Billerud (Buy, TP: SEK130.00) - In a good place with excess cash

Despite escalating macroeconomic uncertainty, we remain convinced that Billerud has healthy pricing power in Europe and is in a good position to increase its capacity utilisation for its well-performing US business. Our 2025e earnings are largely unchanged, but due to FX (much stronger SEK) and a sharp reduction of free CO2 allowances from 2026, we have cut our 2026–2027e EBITDA by c8%. We continue to see an attractive investment case, as our forecasts translate into appealing multiples, while the balance sheet is heavily overcapitalised. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to ...

UPM (Buy, TP: EUR36.00) - Separating the wheat from the chaff

While acknowledging the overall high macro uncertainty, we still expect UPM to show continued earnings growth in 2025, in contrast to many other cyclical companies. Due to a more cautious view on pulp prices and FX, we have cut our 2025–2026e EBITDA by 12–8%. Still, our earnings scenario remains highly attractive. We have also lowered our 2026–2027e capex as we believe the company will push growth investments into the future and instead prioritise share buybacks. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to EUR36 (38).

Gubra - Initiation of coverage - Punching above its weight class

Gubra is a contract research organisation (CRO) and biotech company with a focus on obesity and metabolic diseases. We see the lead asset, GUBamy, as a competitive amylin, offering GLP-1-like efficacy, while its 11-day half-life profile promotes sustained weight loss. Based on our market model, we expect its obesity franchise to reach a 2.7% share of the cUSD229bn market by 2044e, driving long-term value. We initiate coverage with a BUY and DKK750 target price.