Easily brushing HVAC weakness aside

Orders 11% higher, with Marine and Energy jumping. Sales lagged, but no major concern; adj EBITA +4%. Great exposure, visibility, financials - keep BUY

Strong orders, resilient margin despite lower sales

Alfa Laval (Buy, TP: SEK495.00) - Alfa Lavalicious

We are 4% above consensus on Q1e orders but roughly in line on sales and adj. EBITA, and expect the company to guide for unchanged demand in Q2 versus Q1. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK495 (430) after raising our 2024–2026e adj. EBITA by 5% on average. We are 4–10% above consensus on 2024–2026e adj. EBITA and continue to view Alfa Laval as one of the sector’s most exciting long-term growth stories, driven by the energy transitions.

Valmet (Buy, TP: EUR30.00) - Q1 on the weak side

Following a mixed but negatively skewed overall Q1, we have lowered our 2024–2026e clean EPS by c4% on average. We reiterate our BUY and EUR30 target price.

Komplett (Hold, TP: NOK10.00) - Challenging market set to persist

The Q1 report was weak, as revenues were badly hit by a challenging market, which looks set to persist near-term. We reiterate our HOLD and have cut our target price to NOK10 (12) on negative estimate revisions. At our new target price, the stock would be trading at a 2026e P/E of c5x, which we find to be warranted given the subdued market outlook and weak balance sheet.

XXL ASA (No_rec, TP: NOK) - Weak Q1, but better than forecast

XXL reported weak Q1 results, albeit slightly better than expected, as it continues to underperform in a challenging market. On a positive note, the company continues to make progress on its strategic initiatives and has improved its financial position following the private placement. We have cut our 2024–2025e EBITDA by 21–13% on slightly revised revenue and margin assumptions.