EUR 95.03 For Business Accounts Only

ALK-Abello (Buy, TP: DKK165.00) - Growth opportunities remains solid

Today, we attended ALK-Abello’s CMD. While much focus was on the guidance for a flat EBIT margin in 2025–2028 due to pipeline investments, we find them sensible given how slim the company is after 2028e. We also see them largely in line with management’s communication leading up to the CMD as well as our estimates. We otherwise found the event informative and, in our view, it illustrated ALK’s many growth opportunities in the coming years. We reiterate our BUY and DKK165 target price.
New targets 2028 targets. Ahead of the CMD, ALK announced its ambition for a >10% organic revenue CAGR in the strategic period towards 2028, while it guided for the EBIT margin to remain flat at c25% in 2025–2028 (we estimate c25.6% in 2028, consensus c27%) as it invests in its pipeline to secure long-term growth opportunities. The latter in our view got too much attention from investors, especially as we believe it was solidly in line with the new management team’s communication in recent quarters and as we believe the buyside was closer to our estimate.
Plenty of growth opportunities medium-term. We otherwise found the event informative and, in our view, it highlighted ALK’s many growth opportunities in the short-to-medium term, including the ongoing transition towards evidence-based AIT in many European markets, the paediatric label expansion, the upcoming launch of ACARIZAX in China and the significant market expansion by its partner Torii in Japan earlier this year, that together in our view could lead to accelerated growth in coming years.
Cash distribution confirmed. With net-debt/EBITDA near zero and rising profitably, ALK also confirmed it expects to start distributing excess cash to investors in the form of dividends and buybacks. While there were no comments on the exact timing and magnitude, it said gearing would be below 2x net-debt/EBITDA.