ALK-Abello (Buy, TP: DKK145.00) - Set for still-strong European tablet...

We expect another strong quarter for European tablet sales in Q1, up c15% YOY, marking a third consecutive quarter with growth in the teens, which should help boost investor confidence (results due at 07:00 CET on 3 May). However, due to tough comparables for the legacy business and seasonality patterns, we expect the 2024 guidance to be maintained. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to DKK145 (140).

Alk-Abello A S: 1 director

A director at Alk-Abello A S bought 1,880 shares at 132.600DKK and the significance rating of the trade was 53/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearl...

ALK-Abello (Buy, TP: DKK140.00) - Q3 rebound was not a one-off

While the Q4 results were fairly in line, sales growth for the important European tablets was stronger than expected, showing the rebound in Q3 was not a one-off. In addition, the 2024 guidance notably suggests organic growth returning to >10% and still-strong margin expansion, while the CMD in Q2 is likely to reconfirm the 2025 EBIT margin target. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to DKK140 (127). European tablet momentum still strong. Q4 organic growth of c10% was largely ...

ALK-Abello (Buy, TP: DKK127.00) - Looking for continued tablet growth

We expect the focus of the Q4 results to be on ALK showing the rebound in European tablet growth in Q3 was not a one-off, which should further help restore investor confidence. We also expect it to provide guidance suggesting organic growth returning to >10% in 2024 and still-strong margin expansion. However, we believe it is still too early for a strategy update. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to DKK127 (120).

ALK-Abello (Buy, TP: DKK120.00) - Relief on European tablet growth

The Q3 results were stronger than expected, especially the rebound in the important European tablet sales growth. Management indicated that initiation season has started well, supporting >10% European tablet sales growth for 2024, providing some relief and corroborating our positive view of the stock. We reiterate our BUY and have increased our target price to DKK120 (110).

ALK-Abello (Buy, TP: DKK110.00) - All eyes on European tablet sales

We expect the focus for the Q3 results (due at 07:30 CET on 15 November) to be the likely rebound in European tablet sales, which we expect will help restore investor trust, and the first comments from the new CEO (starting 1 November), albeit it is likely too early for a strategy update. We continue to see the valuation as a good entry point, with several potential catalysts. We reiterate our BUY and DKK110 target price.

ALK-Abello (Buy, TP: DKK110.00) - Walking the wALK

After a closer look at some indicators and growth drivers, we are more confident in ALK’s European tablet sales growth rebounding in H2 and expect a return to >10% organic group top-line growth from next year. We also believe the risk of the new management cutting the ‘25% EBIT margin by 2025’ target is understood by the market and see the valuation as a good entry point, with several potential catalysts. We have upgraded to BUY (HOLD) and raised our target price to DKK110 (85).

Northern Lights

ALK-Abello (Hold, TP: DKK85.00) - Tablet beat provides relief for now

Q2 results were stronger than expected, driven by tablets sales in Japan. Albeit not driven by tablets in Europe (which were as weak as expected), tablets finally exceeding forecasts provided some relief. We await proof of a rebound in European tablet sales in H2, but note the strong demand in Japan seems more sustainable, with ALK potentially seeking to add capacity to meet demand. We reiterate our HOLD and DKK85 target price.

ALK-Abello (Hold, TP: DKK85.00) - Q2e unlikely to be the turning point

Focus with the Q2 results is likely to be on tablet growth in Europe, which is probably not going to be strong enough to address concerns in the market about whether the growth slowdown is temporary. We expect the company to maintain its 2023 guidance. We reiterate our HOLD, but have cut our target price to DKK85 (95) on the still-elevated uncertainty.

ALK-Abello (Hold, TP: DKK95.00) - Uncertainty remains elevated

Following last month’s preannounced miss and lowered outlook for tablet sales, the full Q1 report included little news. While the company seems confident the issues are temporary, we believe the uncertainty could remain elevated until the next initiation season in Q4. We reiterate our HOLD but have cut our target price to DKK95 (110).

Northern Lights

ALK-Abello (Hold, TP: DKK110.00) - Down to HOLD on tablet miss

Tonight ALK-Abello released preliminary numbers for Q1, with sales in Europe for the important tablet business well below expectations. The company still believes the issues are temporary, but with a lowered tablet growth outlook, investors could be concerned the challenges are more structural. We have downgraded to HOLD (BUY) and cut our target price to DKK110 (140).

ALK-Abello (Buy, TP: DKK140.00) - Relief from in-line guidance

While the 2023 guidance was in line with expectations, it provided relief that current headwinds were not expected to affect more than feared, while notably the 2025 EBIT margin target was repeated despite concerns. We still consider headwinds to be short-term and well-known, and among other things see upside potential from competitor issues and important clinical readouts in 2023e. We reiterate our BUY and DKK140 target price.

ALK-Abello (Buy, TP: DKK140.00) - Headwinds more than priced in

We expect focus to be on the 2023 guidance when ALK reports its Q4 results (due at 07:30 CET on 3 February). The guidance is likely to reflect a number of short-term headwinds, but we believe these are more than priced into the share price, and see upside potential from problems at a competitor and important clinical readouts in 2023e. We reiterate our BUY and DKK140 target price.

ALK-Abello (Buy, TP: DKK140.00) - Focus shift to 2023

Most surprising with the Q3 results was the lower-than-expected European tablet growth, driven by wholesaler destocking/ a weak tree pollen season. This, together with the announced German price cuts, creates pressure on 2023e. However, we see still believe the company is likely to provide guidance for 2023 at its Q4 results that include 10% organic growth. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to DKK140 (150).

ALK-Abello - Tablet’s growth profile is not in a ‘crisis mode’

Solid Q3 despite deteriorated product mix Bumps in the road and one-offs are not a case killer Updated ests. still make for an attractive BUY case

ALK-Abello - Bump in the road – but LT case remain intact

Q3 largely overperform, but driven by worse product mix One-off’s negatively impact FY’22+23 Share likely to underperform the market today

Sector Fast Comment - Hospital data update

Better hospital margins in September Weaker procedure volume momentum into Q4 Small positive for capex exposure

ALK-Abello - Not immune to inflation – but LT case intact

Q3 sales growth expected to be solid… …with little downside risk to FY’22 guidance Reiterate BUY with slightly lower TP of DKK 185 (189)