ALK-Abello (Buy, TP: DKK190.00) - Expecting solid start to the year

We expect a solid Q1 report, with likely c11% organic growth as well as good margin progress supporting the 2025 guidance. Based on its footprint, we see minimal effect in case of tariffs on pharmaceuticals, with the biggest risk coming from potential reciprocal ones from Europe. We reiterate our BUY and DKK190 target price.

Alk-Abello A S: 1 director

A director at Alk-Abello A S bought 1,606 shares at 155.680DKK and the significance rating of the trade was 53/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearl...

ALK-Abello (Buy, TP: DKK190.00) - Sales trump one-offs in Q4

While one-off costs took the initial focus (albeit broadly pre-warned), a solid underlying performance in Q4 was anchored in the important European tablet sales, which exceeded expectations. We find the 2025 guidance in line with expectations, but see upside risk to consensus on the top line given strong momentum in tablet sales in Europe. We reiterate our BUY and DKK190 target price.

ALK-Abello (Buy, TP: DKK190.00) - Expecting strong year end

We expect a strong Q4, with c12% organic revenue growth YOY, but the EBIT margin to be under pressure from well flagged one-offs related to optimisation initiatives and revision of its Chinese plans. We expect the 2025 guidance to be in line with expectations and its long-term strategy announced last year for >10% organic revenue growth and a c25% EBIT margin. We reiterate our BUY and DKK190 target price.

ALK-Abello (Buy, TP: DKK190.00) - Solid momentum reaffirmed

We find ALK’s solid momentum reaffirmed with the strong Q3 results, where higher European tablet sales more than offset the softness in SCIT/SLIT-drops. We believe the results also confirmed continued profitability improvement, leaving ALK on track to meet its 2025 EBIT margin target of c25% and in a position of strength to invest in growth opportunities, with the Neffy deal as a good example. We reiterate our BUY and DKK190 target price.

ALK-Abello (Buy, TP: DKK190.00) - Should be another strong quarter

We expect another solid quarter for ALK, driven by continued strong European tablet sales momentum (we estimate c25% organic growth YOY, versus c35% in Q2). In the event our European tablet estimates prove conservative, we believe the full-year guidance could be raised for the fourth time this year. We reiterate our BUY and DKK190 target price.

ALK-Abello (Buy, TP: DKK190.00) - Momentum keeps building

Last night, ALK raised its full-year guidance for the third time this year, again related to the strong European tablets that saw organic growth accelerating from c28% in Q1 to c35% in Q2 (consensus c26%). Momentum remains strong, with the company on track to achieve 16% (if not higher) organic growth in 2024, which raises the question if growth medium-term could be higher than the guidance of >10%. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to DKK190 (165).

ALK-Abello (Buy, TP: DKK165.00) - Guidance raised again

On Friday evening, ALK raised its full-year guidance for the second time this year, once again related primarily to strong European tablet momentum, but also improved legacy performance. However, it also gave an update on its approval application for its house dust mite tablet in China, which is likely to incur delays. While this removes some upside potential short-term, we believe the stock could trade up >5% tomorrow on solid tablet momentum.

ALK-Abello (Buy, TP: DKK165.00) - Growth opportunities remains solid

Today, we attended ALK-Abello’s CMD. While much focus was on the guidance for a flat EBIT margin in 2025–2028 due to pipeline investments, we find them sensible given how slim the company is after 2028e. We also see them largely in line with management’s communication leading up to the CMD as well as our estimates. We otherwise found the event informative and, in our view, it illustrated ALK’s many growth opportunities in the coming years. We reiterate our BUY and DKK165 target price. New target...

ALK-Abello (Buy, TP: DKK165.00) - New 2030 financial targets likely

ALK is due to host a CMD on 4 June, which we expect to be a positive event, where management is likely to set new 2030 financial targets. We believe it will reiterate its long-term ambition of >10% organic revenue growth and that investors will look for potentially accelerating growth given ALK’s growth opportunities. We also believe it will guide for EBIT margin expansion to slow post-2025 to invest in the pipeline and support paediatric launches. We reiterate our BUY and DKK165 target price.

ALK-Abello (Buy, TP: DKK165.00) - European tablet growth shifts gear

Last night, ahead of time, ALK-Abello published its Q1 results and increased its FY top-line guidance on much stronger than expected European tablet sales growth of c28% (consensus c15%). At the same time, the company announced a cost-cutting programme in connection with its ongoing strategic review, which should help it reach its c25% EBIT margin target by 2025. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to DKK165 (145).

ALK-Abello (Buy, TP: DKK145.00) - Set for still-strong European tablet...

We expect another strong quarter for European tablet sales in Q1, up c15% YOY, marking a third consecutive quarter with growth in the teens, which should help boost investor confidence (results due at 07:00 CET on 3 May). However, due to tough comparables for the legacy business and seasonality patterns, we expect the 2024 guidance to be maintained. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to DKK145 (140).

ALK-Abello (Buy, TP: DKK140.00) - Q3 rebound was not a one-off

While the Q4 results were fairly in line, sales growth for the important European tablets was stronger than expected, showing the rebound in Q3 was not a one-off. In addition, the 2024 guidance notably suggests organic growth returning to >10% and still-strong margin expansion, while the CMD in Q2 is likely to reconfirm the 2025 EBIT margin target. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to DKK140 (127). European tablet momentum still strong. Q4 organic growth of c10% was largely ...

ALK-Abello (Buy, TP: DKK127.00) - Looking for continued tablet growth

We expect the focus of the Q4 results to be on ALK showing the rebound in European tablet growth in Q3 was not a one-off, which should further help restore investor confidence. We also expect it to provide guidance suggesting organic growth returning to >10% in 2024 and still-strong margin expansion. However, we believe it is still too early for a strategy update. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to DKK127 (120).

ALK-Abello (Buy, TP: DKK120.00) - Relief on European tablet growth

The Q3 results were stronger than expected, especially the rebound in the important European tablet sales growth. Management indicated that initiation season has started well, supporting >10% European tablet sales growth for 2024, providing some relief and corroborating our positive view of the stock. We reiterate our BUY and have increased our target price to DKK120 (110).

ALK-Abello (Buy, TP: DKK110.00) - All eyes on European tablet sales

We expect the focus for the Q3 results (due at 07:30 CET on 15 November) to be the likely rebound in European tablet sales, which we expect will help restore investor trust, and the first comments from the new CEO (starting 1 November), albeit it is likely too early for a strategy update. We continue to see the valuation as a good entry point, with several potential catalysts. We reiterate our BUY and DKK110 target price.

ALK-Abello (Buy, TP: DKK110.00) - Walking the wALK

After a closer look at some indicators and growth drivers, we are more confident in ALK’s European tablet sales growth rebounding in H2 and expect a return to >10% organic group top-line growth from next year. We also believe the risk of the new management cutting the ‘25% EBIT margin by 2025’ target is understood by the market and see the valuation as a good entry point, with several potential catalysts. We have upgraded to BUY (HOLD) and raised our target price to DKK110 (85).

Northern Lights

ALK-Abello (Hold, TP: DKK85.00) - Tablet beat provides relief for now

Q2 results were stronger than expected, driven by tablets sales in Japan. Albeit not driven by tablets in Europe (which were as weak as expected), tablets finally exceeding forecasts provided some relief. We await proof of a rebound in European tablet sales in H2, but note the strong demand in Japan seems more sustainable, with ALK potentially seeking to add capacity to meet demand. We reiterate our HOLD and DKK85 target price.

ALK-Abello (Hold, TP: DKK85.00) - Q2e unlikely to be the turning point

Focus with the Q2 results is likely to be on tablet growth in Europe, which is probably not going to be strong enough to address concerns in the market about whether the growth slowdown is temporary. We expect the company to maintain its 2023 guidance. We reiterate our HOLD, but have cut our target price to DKK85 (95) on the still-elevated uncertainty.