Alligator Bioscience (Buy, TP: SEK1.00) - OPTIMIZE-1 data in Q1 2024e

The Q3 report was a non-event, in our view, with the market focused on the top-line data read-out from the full OPTIMIZE-1 trial due in early Q1 2024. In the last interim trial analysis, the ORR dropped to c44% (but still significantly above what could be expected from FOLFIRINOX on a standalone basis), but as several patients had been under treatment for only a few weeks, we believe the ORR will likely look stronger at the top-line read-out. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to SEK1.00 (1.10) on adjusted share count assumptions.

Northern Lights

Castellum (Hold, TP: SEK135.00) - Unconvincing Q1 results

We have downgraded to HOLD (BUY) and trimmed our target price to SEK135 (136) following rather soft Q1 results that showed a risk in vacancy adding concern about the rental market outlook. We consider the stock fully valued, given only an 10% NAV discount (adjusted for Entra at market value) and its soft FFOPS growth outlook.

Lindab International (Buy, TP: SEK244.00) - A bump in the road

Lindab’s markets remain under pressure, but comparables are becoming easier, and we expect positive organic growth in H2 2024. Due to the weak Q1, we have reduced our 2024–2026e adj. EBIT by c5% on average and our target price to SEK244 (250), but reiterate our BUY. We expect earnings growth from Q4 onwards, and see upside potential to our target price.

Hexagon Purus (Hold, TP: NOK7.00) - On track

The Q1 report came as a relief to the capital markets. With decent quarterly results, capacity expansion on track, and a still-supportive demand outlook, the industrial business case looks intact. That said, we note the still-high funding need. We reiterate our HOLD, but have raised our target price to NOK7 (6) on lower dilutive effects from assumed further capital raises after Friday’s share price rally. The stock continues to trade at an attractive 40–50% discount to other hydrogen equipment suppliers on EV/sales.