Alligator Bioscience (No_rec, TP: SEK) - Discontinuing coverage

We have discontinued coverage of Alligator Bioscience. Our last published recommendation, target price and estimates should no longer be relied upon.

Alligator Bioscience (Buy, TP: SEK1.50) - Running out of cash runway

The Q3 burn rate was higher than in Q1–Q2 at a time the company’s cash runway is running out – management said it had cash for Q4 (excluding the Q4e option programme TO09). Also, a partnering deal for mitazalimab is taking longer than we assumed, leaving the company in a difficult position (potential partners would be aware of its financial position). We have pushed a deal to 2025e and a potential launch to 2028e; as a result, we have cut our target price to SEK1.50 (2.00). That said, we reitera...

Alligator Bioscience (Buy, TP: SEK2.00) - Out-licensing deal next step

We view the Q2 results as a non-event, given the strong final data reported at the end of the quarter from the mitazalimab phase II OPTIMIZE-1 trial, including 18 months survival data in first line metastatic pancreatic cancer. We believe the next step is a global out-licensing deal (in H2e). We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK2 (1.10) on the strong data.

Alligator Bioscience (Buy, TP: SEK1.10) - OPTIMIZE-1 needs more patien...

In connection with its Q1 report, Alligator Bioscience reported that the FDA wants to see more data from the low-dose cohort in OPTIMIZE-1 (15 more patients and recruitment has already started). This is due to Project Optimus within the FDA, and PK/PD data from the low-dose cohort should be available in Q1 2025. There is a risk that this added uncertainty could delay partnering discussions for mitazalimab, we believe. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to SEK1.10 (1.50).

Alligator Bioscience (Buy, TP: SEK1.50) - Rights issue announced

The group pre-announced its Q4 earnings on 8 February in tandem with revealing plans for a rights issue (c40% guaranteed, with a subscription price of SEK1.07/unit). We believe the financial risk in the case remains high, given less than half the rights issue would be guaranteed and the stock is trading below the subscription price. However, we reiterate our BUY, and have raised our target price to SEK1.5 (1.0).

Alligator Bioscience (Buy, TP: SEK1.00) - OPTIMIZE-1 data in Q1 2024e

The Q3 report was a non-event, in our view, with the market focused on the top-line data read-out from the full OPTIMIZE-1 trial due in early Q1 2024. In the last interim trial analysis, the ORR dropped to c44% (but still significantly above what could be expected from FOLFIRINOX on a standalone basis), but as several patients had been under treatment for only a few weeks, we believe the ORR will likely look stronger at the top-line read-out. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price t...

Northern Lights

Alligator Bioscience (Buy, TP: SEK1.10) - OPTIMIZE-1 data updated

We see the Q2 report as somewhat of a non-event, but right before quarter-end, the company released an update of the data from the phase II trial OPTIMIZE-1 in pancreatic cancer. The data still appears positive, though less than in the previous update (with the ORR declining from c52% to c44%), but still stronger than could be expected from mFOLFIRINOX alone. Operating expenses were higher than we forecast, and we have increased our operating expense estimates. We reiterate our BUY but have redu...

Alligator Bioscience (Buy, TP: SEK1.40) - Reinstating a recommendation

During the past few months, several positive events have taken place, including approval of an Investigational New Drug (IND) in the US, Orphan Drug Designation (ODD) for mitazalimab in pancreatic cancer in the US, and recruitment in the OPTIMIZE-1 trial being completed. We expect a data update from the trial at end-Q2. Following DNB Markets’ role in the recently completed rights issue, we reinstate a recommendation on Alligator Bioscience with a BUY and a target price of SEK1.4. Our target pric...

Alligator Bioscience (No_rec, TP: SEK) - Rights issue announced

Alligator Bioscience (ATORX SS, No_rec) - Rights issue announced (9 pages)

Northern Lights

Alligator Bioscience (Buy, TP: SEK4.00) - Focus on next OPTIMIZE read-...

The Q4 operating loss was larger than we expected, but not a concern to us. The end-Q4 cash position was cSEK97m (broadly in line with our forecast). We believe the key share-price catalyst this year will be the next OPTIMIZE-1 trial read-out (we expect around mid-2023), when we should get updated ORR figures and the first look at PFS. We reiterate our BUY and SEK4 target price.

Alligator Bioscience (Buy, TP: SEK4.00) - Strong interim data for Mita...

Yesterday, Alligator Bioscience presented some promising-looking ORR data in its interim readout from phase II, OPTIMIZE-1. Mitazalimab reported 52% ORR and 90% DCR in PDAC in the 23 evaluated patients. In light of yesterday’s news, we have raised our LOA for the candidate to 13% (10%) and upped our target price to SEK4 (3), while we reiterate our BUY.

Alligator Bioscience (Buy, TP: SEK3.00) - Top-line data to be availabl...

Alligator Bioscience reported an undramatic Q3. The operating loss and cash position showed minor deviations versus estimates. By prioritising its lead candidate, mitazalimab, full top-line data from the OPTIMIZE-1 trial is now due in Q1 2024 (nine months earlier than originally communicated), while interim data is expected to be presented by end-2022 or early 2023. We reiterate our BUY and SEK3 target price.

Nothern Lights

Alligator Bioscience (Buy, TP: SEK3.00) - Wating for OPTIMIZE-1 data

Alligator Bioscience’s Q2 report contained no surprises. The operating loss and the cash position at end-Q2 were in line with our forecasts. The interim data read-out for its first phase II study OPTIMIZE-1, due in Q4, and the start of the second phase II trial OPTIMIZE-2 (probably delayed until H1 2023) are the most important near-term potential catalysts for the company. We reiterate our BUY and SEK3 target price.

Alligator Bioscience (Buy, TP: SEK3.00) - Undramatic Q1 report

Alligator Bioscience’s Q1 was undramatic. Its clinical projects continue to progress, with interim efficacy data expected in Q4. Competing CD40 agonist APX005 (developed by Apexigen) indicates promising data in combination with PD-1 inhibitors, which could provide a clearer pathway for mitazalimab. We have made only marginal estimate changes, and reiterate our BUY and SEK3 target price.

Alligator Bioscience (Buy, TP: SEK3.00) - Well financed for the coming...

In the Q4 report, the most important recent development was the re-financing and the fact that the company now has a cash runway for up to two years. The OPTIMIZE-1 trial for mitazalimab is progressing, and the company expects to receive safety data in Q1 and interim efficacy data in Q4. We have reinstated our recommendation and target price following the recent transaction, at BUY and SEK3.0, respectively.

Alligator Bioscience (No_rec, TP: SEK) - Financial position to strengt...

Reported Q3 earnings (loss) were overall in line with our expectations, even though operating expenses were slightly higher than we forecast. At the same time, revenues also exceeded our forecast. The cash flow trend was slightly better than we expected, and thus the cash position at the end of the quarter was cSEK79m, compared to our estimate of cSEK73m. We have withdrawn our recommendation and target price.

Alligator Bioscience (Buy, TP: SEK10.00) - Waiting for data in H2

Alligator Bioscience reported an operating loss for Q2, in line with our forecast. At quarter-end, the company had cSEK110m in cash and, according to our forecast, needs to raise equity in the latter part of 2021 to have enough funds to finance the upcoming phase II trial for ATOR-1017 (and to complete the mitazalimab phase II trial – interim safety data should come in late-H2). We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to SEK10 (14) based on our forecast changes.