Arjo (Hold, TP: SEK37.00) - Expecting more of the same

We forecast c3% organic growth YOY in Q4, similar to consensus, and a gross margin in line with the guidance (the report is due at 07:00 CET on 30 January). The UK has now published a 2025 healthcare budget, but Arjo is still being affected by issues with national spending plans in several other markets. We reiterate our HOLD but have trimmed our target price to SEK37 (40).

Arjo (Hold, TP: SEK40.00) - Budget uncertainty set to linger

Q3 sales and earnings disappointed, largely explained by soft capital equipment sales. Delays in the release of national healthcare budgets (including the UK, France and Poland) have hurt organic growth, and there remains significant uncertainty about how long the situation will persist. We believe investors will remain cautious until there are clear signs of improved demand. We have downgraded to HOLD (BUY) and cut our target price to SEK40 (58).

Weak earnings but strong cash flow generation

Selvaag Bolig (Sell, TP: NOK30.00) - KPI recovery, but profits must wait

In its Q4 trading update, unit sales increased by 39% YOY to 122 (net) and starts by 129% YOY to 298, broadly in line with our forecasts. Although new housing sales will likely recover from the trough on lower interest rates, we expect Selvaag Bolig’s earnings recovery to take longer, and estimate Q4 EBIT down by 16% YOY to NOK108m (results due at 07:00 CET on 12 February). We reiterate our SELL and NOK30 target price.

December web-activity insights

Web-activity data points to trading activity down c5% MOM in December for Avanza and Nordnet, although still high compared to before the US election. We continue to see upside potential on particularly Avanza’s transaction-related commissions, thanks to high FX fees from elevated cross-border trading. The platforms are due to release their December statistics on 7 January.

Electrolux Professional (Hold, TP: SEK75.00) - Q4 looks set to be a repeat of Q3

We expect broadly similar market and divisional dynamics QOQ in Q4, but are less optimistic on growth in the US Food & Beverage segment (we now see the recovery materialising slightly later than initially envisaged). We forecast 6.0% growth YOY in group sales in Q4 and an adj. EBITA margin of 12.3%. We reiterate our HOLD, but have lowered our target price to SEK75 (79) based on our view of a delayed US Food & Beverage recovery as well as continued headwinds in the Middle East into 2025.