Autostore (Sell, TP: NOK9.50) - Improved order intake needed

While we have lowered our 2024–2026e gross opex by 4–5% following the OpFCF beat in Q3, we continue to see downside risk to consensus given still-sluggish backlog growth (3% YOY) despite the longer backlog duration (as we understand it). We therefore reiterate our SELL, but have raised our target price to NOK9.5 (9) after increasing our earnings estimates.

Hit the dip, ready to rip

Sales 5% better, orders 1.4% below

Sales 5% vs cons, adj. EBITDA 7% on higher sales / GM. Orders -1.4% vs cons; '24 revenue guidance/outlook comments kept. '24e EBIT likely up ~3% on higher GM, stock up ~2%

Edda Wind (Buy, TP: NOK30.00) - Well positioned

While EBITDA was broadly in line with expectations, the Q3 report gave early signs of improved operational reliability, which we believe will be key to narrowing the discount to underlying values (the stock is trading at 0.6x P/NAV). Recent contract awards (including a new 12+12-month contract announced with the results) have made the fleet fully booked until the 2025 summer season, and three of the four 2025 newbuild deliveries are now booked directly following yard delivery. We reiterate our BUY and NOK30 target price.

Valuation and market update

In this note, we show updated valuation and market statistics for the Offshore Drilling sector.

Petrobras FPSO delays may hit service volumes but lengthen cycle

Being the largest global consumer of deepwater oil services, Petrobras’ strategic plans tend to get investor attention. On the positive side, its latest 5-year plan sees 5% higher E&P spending than the previous one, and has a more stable phasing between the years, which is supportive for the cycle duration. However, several FPSOs are facing significant delays, which is on the downside for oil services, leading to delays for deepwater oilfield services (primarily drilling and subsea), likely resulting in lower ‘peak volumes’ and demand being spread over a longer period. The rig count is said to...