Autostore (Sell, TP: NOK6.70) - Elevated risk to 2025e sales

We remain cautious ahead of the Q1 results, expecting a headwind to sales from pull-ins in Q4 and as tariff concerns and economic uncertainty are likely to slow investment activity, exacerbating what we view as a subdued sales outlook for AutoStore. While we have raised our Q1e orders on an FX tailwind and opex-based projects, we do not expect any improvements in underlying demand. We reiterate our SELL and have cut our target price to NOK6.7 (9.0) on lower earnings and asymmetric downside risk ...

Tariffs curbing investments

Autostore (Sell, TP: NOK9.00) - Expecting a tough start to 2025

AutoStore reported Q4 sales at the top end of its guided range, driven by an acceleration of projects planned for 2025, which we expect to put pressure on Q1 sales. Combined with the sales tailwind from project delays in 2023, we believe underlying sales could be substantially lower than reported. As we remain cautious on 2025e sales, we reiterate our SELL and cut our target price to NOK9 on lower 2025 earnings.

Solid base with margins built to last

Sales and margin above, orders below

Sales 5% vs cons, adj. EBITDA 13% on higher sales / GM. Orders -4% vs cons, but neg impacted by FX; outlook reiterated

Autostore (Sell, TP: NOK9.50) - Still cautious into 2025

While we are in line with the 2024 sales guidance and see limited risk to pre-announced Q4 sales, we remain cautious on Q4 order intake. We expect a limited pull-forward, as we understand Autostore has not planned for any meaningful price increases. While we believe the valuation seems less stretched, we still see a risk to consensus 2025e sales on a prolonged downturn. Thus, we reiterate our SELL and NOK9.5 target price.

Slow lane now, fast track ahead

Norway: Best ideas Q4'24

Autostore (Sell, TP: NOK9.50) - Improved order intake needed

While we have lowered our 2024–2026e gross opex by 4–5% following the OpFCF beat in Q3, we continue to see downside risk to consensus given still-sluggish backlog growth (3% YOY) despite the longer backlog duration (as we understand it). We therefore reiterate our SELL, but have raised our target price to NOK9.5 (9) after increasing our earnings estimates.

Hit the dip, ready to rip

Sales 5% better, orders 1.4% below

Sales 5% vs cons, adj. EBITDA 7% on higher sales / GM. Orders -1.4% vs cons; '24 revenue guidance/outlook comments kept. '24e EBIT likely up ~3% on higher GM, stock up ~2%

Growing industry in a dip

Autostore (Sell, TP: NOK9.00) - Set for limited recovery support

While we are in line with the company’s 2024 sales guidance and see limited risk to the pre-announced Q3 sales, we remain cautious on Q3 order intake, as partner earnings suggest downside risk to our already soft forecast. We still see risk to consensus 2025e sales on a delayed market recovery, and reiterate our SELL and NOK9 target price.

Headwinds continue

CMD: PW for H2'24: 2024 EBIT down ~10%. Expects +14% market growth and "high and sustainable" margins

A tough pitch

CMD: Key focus on growth agenda and financial targets. Investor's recovery skepticism clouds future benefits. Neural / cautious view ahead of the event

Autostore (Sell, TP: NOK9.00) - Near-term risks remain

Despite consensus 2024–2026e sales coming down after the soft Q2 results, we still see downside risk on continued postponements and potential order cancellations, and believe the current backlog barely supports sequential growth in H2e. Thus, we reiterate our SELL and have cut our target price to NOK9 (11) on our lower estimates.

Grab it when it's rough

Weak Q2, estm down

Q2 sales -8% vs cons, adj. EBITDA 7% below on lower sales. Orders -16% vs cons — '24/ '25 cons EBITDA down ~7%. More cautious outlook

Autostore (Sell, TP: NOK11.00) - Outlook still muted

We remain cautious ahead Q2, as US imports and partner earnings add weight to our concern about flattish sales growth YOY in 2024. Despite coming down, following what we view as soft Q1 sales, we still see downside risk to consensus. While AutoStore’s valuation is starting to look less stretched, we reiterate our SELL, and have cut our target price to NOK11 (14) on near-term growth headwinds amid the muted market outlook.

Warehouse Automation: Summer wrap

Investors questioning H2 recover, peers down 11% on reports.AutoStore segment (standardised) seems to be holding up better. We take a neutral stand ahead of AutoStore's Q2 report