Autostore (Sell, TP: NOK14.00) - Set for slow start to the year

While we forecast a continued sequential order intake improvement, we are 4% and 6%, respectively, below consensus on Q1e sales and adj. EBITDA, as we expect a slow start to the year. This is supported by AutoStore US imports, indicating a substantial drop in Q1 sales. In our view, the soft revenue growth could raise concerns about top-line growth for 2024, potentially alleviated by a strong order intake. Thus, we reiterate our SELL and NOK14 target price, corresponding to a 2024–2025e adj. P/E ...

Autostore (Sell, TP: NOK14.00) - Not out of the woods yet

AutoStore reported improved order intake QOQ in Q4, but we believe the lack of revenue guidance for 2024 supports our estimate of flattish YOY growth, with what appears to be a continued muted outlook. Thus, we still see downside risk to consensus; we are 15% below on 2024e adj. OpFCF. We reiterate our SELL and NOK14 target price, corresponding to 2024–2025e adj. P/Es of 25–18x.

Autostore (Sell, TP: NOK14.00) - Near-term estimates largely unchanged

Ahead of the Q4 results, we have made only minor near-term estimate revisions, and forecast only a modest order intake improvement in Q4 (at USD155m), but have raised our 2024–2025e order intake by 2–4% on stronger demand from the US. However, we continue to see downside risk to consensus; we are 13% below on 2024e net income. We reiterate our SELL, but have raised our target price to NOK14 (12), corresponding to a 2024–2025e adj. P/E of 25–21x.

Autostore (Sell, TP: NOK12.00) - Guidance cut likely overlooked

AutoStore reported improved order intake QOQ in Q3, but we believe the USD60m cut to its 2023 revenue guidance and its implication for 2024 revenue growth were probably overlooked by the market. We continue to see downside risk to consensus, as we are 16% below on adj. net income for 2024e. Thus, we reiterate our SELL and NOK12 target price, corresponding to 2024–2025e adj. P/Es of 21–18x.

Autostore (Sell, TP: NOK12.00) - Further downside potential

Ahead of the Q3 results, we have cut our already below-consensus estimates; we model for continued soft order intake in Q3 (at USD145m) and have lowered our 2024e order intake by 6%. We continue to see downside risk to consensus (we are 17% below on adj. net income for 2024e). Thus, we reiterate our SELL and have cut our target price to NOK12 (14), corresponding to a 2024–2025e adj. P/E of 21–17x.

Northern Lights

Autostore (Sell, TP: NOK18.00) - The downside has increased

We are impressed with AutoStore’s Q1 order intake and overall optimism amid a challenging retailer spending environment. Still, our longer-term concerns persist and we thus reiterate our SELL and NOK18 target price.

Autostore (Sell, TP: NOK18.00) - Demanding order expectations

We believe AutoStore’s order intake could disappoint materially in Q1, and that underlying order trends have been masked by FX. We point to several recent negative developments and reiterate our SELL and NOK18 target price ahead of the Q1 print later this week.

Zeus: Automotive Retail sector analysis - April 2023

This report provides an updated view on the key themes facing the motor retail sector in 2023. On page 4 we discuss the conclusions of our July 2022 research and compare them to what happened in H2 2022. It is clear that many of the same themes (supply shortages, high inflation, sector consolidation, etc.) still apply – here we discuss how these themes have evolved.

Autostore (Sell, TP: NOK18.00) - Expecting orders to soften further

We consider the Q4 report weak. Order intake and revenues came in below consensus and guidance was lowered, which was partly mitigated by faster-than-expected margin normalisation. We note that the order intake was likely considerably softer than at first glance when adjusting for the backlog-FX effect. We have lowered our revenue forecasts and reiterate our SELL and NOK18 target price.

Autostore (Sell, TP: NOK18.00) - Soft Q4e P&L

We expect above-consensus order entry but potentially disappointing results for Q4, with retailer customers likely reluctant to flush budgets and rush project execution at this point in the business cycle – quite the opposite, we believe. We reiterate our SELL and NOK18 target price.

Northern Lights

Autostore - Initiation of coverage - The rise and fall of the robots

We consider robotic automation leader AutoStore an exciting company with an overly stretched valuation, and initiate coverage with a SELL and NOK18 target price. This is based on a soft short-term outlook, a strong medium-term outlook, and what we believe are realistic long-term growth and return forecasts.

AutoStore Holdings Ltd. - Demand holding up better than feared

Q3 margin below, but GM set to improve from Q4 Impressive order execution given peers’ weakness Long-term opportunity vs. short-term uncertainty – HOLD

AutoStore Holdings Ltd. - Q3 below, but better intake de-risks estimat...

Adj EBITDA 9% below cons on weaker margins Order intake USD 155m, 9% above expectations Guidance reiterated, smaller estimate changes

AutoStore Holdings Ltd. - Heads-up for report 10 November

AutoStore will report Q3 at CET 06:00 on Thursday, 10 Nov. A webcast will follow at 08:00, /3WHFgyx

AutoStore Holdings Ltd. - Highly mixed signals from partners Q3 report...

Two key AutoStore partners reports Q3 orders today Swisslog +40% yoy, Dematic -56% yoy Read-across: Q3 orders could be supported by Swisslog

AutoStore Holdings Ltd. - PW from Dematic/KION

KION says order intake “substantially” below Q3’21 Market clearly weaker from July: Orders cancellations Updated ’22 orders guidance indicates -17 to -38% in H2

AutoStore Holdings Ltd. - Double hit

Gross margin headwinds to continue Negative volume growth on orders Limited positive triggers – HOLD

AutoStore Holdings Ltd. - Good enough for now

Order intake still a concern GM even lower in 2022, but on track for 2023 recovery Attractive valuation, but limited triggers near-term