Autostore (Sell, TP: NOK9.50) - Improved order intake needed

While we have lowered our 2024–2026e gross opex by 4–5% following the OpFCF beat in Q3, we continue to see downside risk to consensus given still-sluggish backlog growth (3% YOY) despite the longer backlog duration (as we understand it). We therefore reiterate our SELL, but have raised our target price to NOK9.5 (9) after increasing our earnings estimates.

Hit the dip, ready to rip

Sales 5% better, orders 1.4% below

Sales 5% vs cons, adj. EBITDA 7% on higher sales / GM. Orders -1.4% vs cons; '24 revenue guidance/outlook comments kept. '24e EBIT likely up ~3% on higher GM, stock up ~2%

Growing industry in a dip

Autostore (Sell, TP: NOK9.00) - Set for limited recovery support

While we are in line with the company’s 2024 sales guidance and see limited risk to the pre-announced Q3 sales, we remain cautious on Q3 order intake, as partner earnings suggest downside risk to our already soft forecast. We still see risk to consensus 2025e sales on a delayed market recovery, and reiterate our SELL and NOK9 target price.

Headwinds continue

CMD: PW for H2'24: 2024 EBIT down ~10%. Expects +14% market growth and "high and sustainable" margins

A tough pitch

CMD: Key focus on growth agenda and financial targets. Investor's recovery skepticism clouds future benefits. Neural / cautious view ahead of the event

Autostore (Sell, TP: NOK9.00) - Near-term risks remain

Despite consensus 2024–2026e sales coming down after the soft Q2 results, we still see downside risk on continued postponements and potential order cancellations, and believe the current backlog barely supports sequential growth in H2e. Thus, we reiterate our SELL and have cut our target price to NOK9 (11) on our lower estimates.

Grab it when it's rough

Weak Q2, estm down

Q2 sales -8% vs cons, adj. EBITDA 7% below on lower sales. Orders -16% vs cons — '24/ '25 cons EBITDA down ~7%. More cautious outlook

Autostore (Sell, TP: NOK11.00) - Outlook still muted

We remain cautious ahead Q2, as US imports and partner earnings add weight to our concern about flattish sales growth YOY in 2024. Despite coming down, following what we view as soft Q1 sales, we still see downside risk to consensus. While AutoStore’s valuation is starting to look less stretched, we reiterate our SELL, and have cut our target price to NOK11 (14) on near-term growth headwinds amid the muted market outlook.

Warehouse Automation: Summer wrap

Investors questioning H2 recover, peers down 11% on reports.AutoStore segment (standardised) seems to be holding up better. We take a neutral stand ahead of AutoStore's Q2 report

Autostore (Sell, TP: NOK14.00) - US imports on the soft side

Despite consensus sales having come down after what we view as a disappointing sales print in Q1, we continue to see downside risk to consensus, as we do not expect the current backlog and order intake over the coming quarters to be sufficient to achieve sales growth YOY in 2024. While currently offering only an early indication, AutoStore’s US imports suggest a sequential decline from the already soft US sales reported in Q1. Thus, we reiterate our SELL and NOK14 target price.

Autostore (Sell, TP: NOK14.00) - Set for slow start to the year

While we forecast a continued sequential order intake improvement, we are 4% and 6%, respectively, below consensus on Q1e sales and adj. EBITDA, as we expect a slow start to the year. This is supported by AutoStore US imports, indicating a substantial drop in Q1 sales. In our view, the soft revenue growth could raise concerns about top-line growth for 2024, potentially alleviated by a strong order intake. Thus, we reiterate our SELL and NOK14 target price, corresponding to a 2024–2025e adj. P/E ...

Autostore (Sell, TP: NOK14.00) - Not out of the woods yet

AutoStore reported improved order intake QOQ in Q4, but we believe the lack of revenue guidance for 2024 supports our estimate of flattish YOY growth, with what appears to be a continued muted outlook. Thus, we still see downside risk to consensus; we are 15% below on 2024e adj. OpFCF. We reiterate our SELL and NOK14 target price, corresponding to 2024–2025e adj. P/Es of 25–18x.

Autostore (Sell, TP: NOK14.00) - Near-term estimates largely unchanged

Ahead of the Q4 results, we have made only minor near-term estimate revisions, and forecast only a modest order intake improvement in Q4 (at USD155m), but have raised our 2024–2025e order intake by 2–4% on stronger demand from the US. However, we continue to see downside risk to consensus; we are 13% below on 2024e net income. We reiterate our SELL, but have raised our target price to NOK14 (12), corresponding to a 2024–2025e adj. P/E of 25–21x.

Autostore (Sell, TP: NOK12.00) - Guidance cut likely overlooked

AutoStore reported improved order intake QOQ in Q3, but we believe the USD60m cut to its 2023 revenue guidance and its implication for 2024 revenue growth were probably overlooked by the market. We continue to see downside risk to consensus, as we are 16% below on adj. net income for 2024e. Thus, we reiterate our SELL and NOK12 target price, corresponding to 2024–2025e adj. P/Es of 21–18x.

Autostore (Sell, TP: NOK12.00) - Further downside potential

Ahead of the Q3 results, we have cut our already below-consensus estimates; we model for continued soft order intake in Q3 (at USD145m) and have lowered our 2024e order intake by 6%. We continue to see downside risk to consensus (we are 17% below on adj. net income for 2024e). Thus, we reiterate our SELL and have cut our target price to NOK12 (14), corresponding to a 2024–2025e adj. P/E of 21–17x.

Northern Lights

Autostore (Sell, TP: NOK18.00) - The downside has increased

We are impressed with AutoStore’s Q1 order intake and overall optimism amid a challenging retailer spending environment. Still, our longer-term concerns persist and we thus reiterate our SELL and NOK18 target price.