Tariffs curbing investments

Autostore (Sell, TP: NOK9.00) - Expecting a tough start to 2025

AutoStore reported Q4 sales at the top end of its guided range, driven by an acceleration of projects planned for 2025, which we expect to put pressure on Q1 sales. Combined with the sales tailwind from project delays in 2023, we believe underlying sales could be substantially lower than reported. As we remain cautious on 2025e sales, we reiterate our SELL and cut our target price to NOK9 on lower 2025 earnings.

Flerie (Buy, TP: SEK57.00) - Entering tougher times with care

Entering tougher times with care Q1 saw a 6% decline QOQ in Flerie’s NAV, as FX movements and valuation overshadowed progress across its portfolio (e.g. positive results for Lipum and AnaCardio). We have lowered our target price to SEK57 (68) to reflect a more challenging environment for early-stage life science assets, but reiterate our BUY as we continue to like the diversified, conservatively valued portfolio and the share redemption scheme at NAV (set for end-Q2). Flerie is set to take listed holding Toleranzia private subject to AGM approval, which should improve funding conditions agains...

VEF (Buy, TP: SEK2.50) - Executing on exits and buybacks

Q1 saw 1% NAV growth QOQ in USD terms, as operational progress and FX effects (mostly relating to the BRL) offset multiples contraction. We are encouraged by the recent partial exit of Juspay at a 37% IRR, 4x CoC and valuation in line with NAV, and see further near-term upside potential in this name. We have cut our target price to SEK2.5 (2.9), mainly on the USD headwind versus the SEK, but reiterate our BUY, as we still see scope for a re-rating from continued exits, deleveraging and the recently announced buyback programme.

Nordea (Buy, TP: SEK155.00) - Resilient returns at a discount

Nordea’s Q1 was a robust quarter, with a resilient >15% ROE on a strong capital position (200bp management buffer) underpinning Nordea’s widening ROE lead versus its peers. We have raised our 2025–2027e EPS by 3–4% and our target price to SEK155 (148). Nordea is trading at a c15% P/E discount to its Swedish large bank peers, which we find unjustified given its superior ROE versus the peer group. We reiterate our BUY.