Market leader thriving in current environment

Brokerage, FX and cost drives solid Q1 beat

Scandic Hotels (Buy, TP: SEK115.00) - Strong ahead of high season

Q1 tends to be seasonally weak, with Scandic Hotels’ results broadly in line with our expectations, translating into minor upward forecast changes. With solid pre-bookings ahead of the high season, we see continued RevPAR growth of 4–5% for 2025e driving FCF, allowing growth initiatives and shareholder-friendly capital allocation. Our EV/EBITDA valuation target of 8x would better mirror the quality of the franchise, in our view, and we reiterate our BUY and SEK115 target price.

Boliden (Buy, TP: SEK460.00) - ‘Self-help’ and diversification

Reflecting the deterioration in the macro outlook and our lower metal price assumptions, we have cut our 2025–2026e EBITDA by 12–13%. However, we still expect healthy earnings, seeing relatively limited downside risk thanks to unique diversification across base and precious metals, and steady earnings growth in our forecast horizon from investments, as well as better metal grades at the Aitik mine from late this year. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to SEK460 (500).

Coloplast (Hold, TP: DKK770.00) - Expecting another weak quarter

We expect another soft quarter (7.8% organic revenue growth YOY and a 27.5% EBIT margin), before then improving. We look for unchanged 2024/25 guidance of 8–9% organic sales growth and a c28% EBIT margin before special items. We have cut our 2024/25–2026/27e EPS by 2.8% on average and believe returning to a 30%+ EBIT margin hinges on external factors. We reiterate our HOLD, but have cut our target price to DKK770 (850).