March web-activity insights

Web-activity data from March indicates roughly flat trading activity MOM for Avanza and Nordnet, and one of the most active months in three years despite negative seasonality. For Q1e, we see c20% upside potential on Avanza’s trading-related commissions, c15% on Nordnet’s. The platforms are due to release their March statistics on 3 April.

CFO is leaving the building

February web-activity insights

Web-activity data points to trading activity up 2–5% MOM for Avanza and Nordnet in February, potentially the second-most active month in three years. For Q1e, we see upside potential to Avanza’s and Nordnet’s transaction-related commissions, since activity seems to be holding up better than the consensus view of an imminent rapid normalisation. The platforms are due to release their February statistics on 5 March.

Awaiting a second serve

Avanza Bank (Buy, TP: SEK360.00) - 2025e EPS to defy rate-cut gravity

We expect the accelerating savings and activity trends in Q4 coupled with positive stock market sentiment and macroeconomic tailwinds for Swedish savers to support c10% EPS growth in 2025, despite raised investments and headwinds from lower rates. We have increased our 2025–2026e EPS by 5–6%, leaving us c20% above consensus for these years. We have raised our target price to SEK360 (330) and reiterate our BUY.

Brokerage and NII behind robust Q4 beat

Avanza Bank (Buy, TP: SEK330.00) - Trading made great again

We believe a lingering customer trading activity uptick since the US elections in November coupled with macroeconomic tailwinds for Swedish savers provides good outlook for positive revenue and EPS growth in 2025 despite lower interest rates, contrary to consensus. We have raised our 2025–2026e EPS by 7–8% and our target price to SEK330 (300) and reiterate our BUY.

December web-activity insights

Web-activity data points to trading activity down c5% MOM in December for Avanza and Nordnet, although still high compared to before the US election. We continue to see upside potential on particularly Avanza’s transaction-related commissions, thanks to high FX fees from elevated cross-border trading. The platforms are due to release their December statistics on 7 January.

Valuation not exciting enough

November web-activity insights

Web-activity data points to a significant uptick in trading MOM in November for Avanza and Nordnet, driven by higher activity during and after the US election. We see upside potential on Avanza’s transaction-related commissions, thanks to higher FX fees from likely elevated cross-border trading. The platforms are due to release their November statistics on 4 December.

Fairly valued given short-term growth outlook

Avanza Bank (Buy, TP: SEK300.00) - Reassuring strategy update

We believe the new long-term strategic priorities given in the Q3 report should have de-risked any concerns over surging IT investments, while also providing a compelling case for continued Swedish growth for years to come. We agree with the bullish Swedish growth outlook, and see upside potential to the new 15% savings capital growth target in the next few years, fuelled by macro tailwinds for Swedish savers. We have made limited EPS changes, and reiterate our BUY and SEK300 target price.

New cost guidance to weigh on the share today

Decelerating earnings growth on the cards

Avanza Bank (Buy, TP: SEK300.00) - Do not discount Sweden yet

The threat of a growth slowdown for Avanza is probably overstated by the market, with fiscal and monetary policy tailwinds set to support still-robust growth in savings in Sweden for 2025–2026e. We have upgraded to BUY (HOLD), raised our target price to SEK300 (255) and our 2025–2026e EPS by 4–6% (6–9% above consensus).

Ramp-up in IT investments not in the cards

August web-activity insights

Web-activity data points to trading activity in August being up MOM for Avanza and Nordnet, suggesting a stronger uptick than usual seasonality. Consensus also seems to have overlooked a substantially increased number of trading days in Q3. Based on this, we see upside potential to consensus on Q3e brokerage income for both stocks (more for Avanza). The platforms are due to release their August statistics on 4 September.

Attractive but fairly valued long-term story

Q2 in line with ABGSC expectations. Earnings scenario intact, EPS CAGR of 4% (2023-‘26e). TP kept at SEK 240, reiterate HOLD.

Avanza Bank (Hold, TP: SEK255.00) - Benign margin trends for now

The main positive takeaways from the Q2 results were continued improvement in the brokerage margin and a stabilisation in the fund margin, both likely aided indirectly by the positive stock market trend YTD. Still, we see some downside risk to the brokerage margin in H2, with the CEO acknowledging current brokerage pricing may not be aligned with its “simplicity” aspiration. We have cut our 2024–2026e EPS by c2% and our target price to SEK255 (261), and reiterate our HOLD

Higher costs drives small Q2 miss