Deposit rates cut by 0.25%

April web-activity insights

Web-activity data in April points to trading activity being down c7% MOM for Avanza and broadly flat for Nordnet. Based on this, we see upside to consensus Q2 brokerage income for both companies. The platforms are due to release their April statistics on 6 May.

Avanza Bank (Hold, TP: SEK257.00) - Understated activity resurgence

We expect rising stock markets and customer activity to offset much of the NII headwind from looming rate cuts, and to drive positive consensus earnings revisions for 2024–2025e. Our 2024–2026 EPS forecasts are broadly unchanged, leaving the stock trading at a 2025e P/E of c17x. With 10% upside potential to our unchanged SEK257 target price, we reiterate our HOLD.

Metsa Board (Buy, TP: EUR11.00) - Scope for a revaluation

With ample evidence of improved demand for paper board and a better price outlook for market pulp, we believe earnings headwind has now turned into a tailwind. We also expect earnings to be driven by incremental volumes after capacity expansions at existing mills. After ambitious investments over the past three years, the company’s paper board capacity is up c25%, while its net long pulp position has increased by close to 30%. We have upgraded to BUY (HOLD) and raised our target price to EUR11 (7.7) on our increased estimates including higher dividends.

BioArctic (Buy, TP: SEK350.00) - Limited news on EU approval

The Q1 report was in line with expectations, with a small beat on the operating loss. The cash position at end-Q1 was nearly SEK1bn. There was limited news on the delayed EU approval (waiting on a SAG meeting). Eisai recently guided for Leqembi sales of JPY56.5bn (year to March 2025), implying royalties to BioArctic of cSEK360m. We reiterate our BUY and SEK350 target price.

Surgical Science (Buy, TP: SEK230.00) - Weaker than expected start to 2024

The weak Q1 results, with sales and adj. EBIT below our estimates, were largely due to a significant slowdown in Educational products. We have marginally revised our 2024–2026e on the strong management outlook for 2024, and reiterate our BUY and SEK230 target price. We believe the weak share price reaction on the report presents an opportunity for long-term investors.