Axactor (Hold, TP: NOK4.30) - Investing through the trough

Despite a still-challenging collection environment, Q2 cash EBITDA was EUR61m, up 3% YOY as cost-efficiency measures again reduced opex. Investment activity surged during the quarter, as EUR70m in NPL portfolio acquisitions (the highest since Q4 2022) contributed to another increase in the portfolio gross IRR. Since 2021, the gross IRR has risen from 15.7% to 18.9%. We have tweaked our 2025-2026e EPS after the report, and reiterate our HOLD and NOK4.3 target price.

Solid investments help ERC

Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK1150.00) - CagriSema set to raise the bar

We remain below Visible Alpha consensus on Q3 LCY figures, likely due to our lower assumptions of realised Wegovy and Ozempic US prescriptions. With the Q3 results, we still expect management to narrow the 2024 guidance for LCY sales growth of 24–28% YOY (22–28%) and LCY operating profit growth of 22–28% YOY (20–28%). We focus on the REDEFINE-1 headline results (due in Q4) and expect CagriSema to show a c27% weight loss. We reiterate our BUY and DKK1,150 target price.

Pandora (Buy, TP: DKK1400.00) - Solid Q3e on tough comparables

We expect another solid quarter, especially given the tough comparables. We see potential for the 2024 top-line guidance to be raised, and expect another update on commodity mitigation efforts to be well received following the recent spike in silver prices. We reiterate our BUY and DKK1,400 target price.

Lower rates to drive higher multiples

We expect Q3 to see an accelerated NII decline and profitability pressure driven by central bank rate cuts. However, we still see attractive return potential in the sector, underpinned by high total sector yields of >10% in 2024–2026e and likely multiples expansion from a currently depressed sector P/E of c8.5x. We prefer the banks with more resilient profitability trends and the strongest capital distribution outlooks. On this basis, Nordea and Handelsbanken remain our top sector picks.