The higher they fly, the harder they fall

'24e-25e EBIT -5-4% on Scotland and lower volumes. Great Q1, but clouds on the horizon and headwinds ahead. Given the continued risk of disappointments, we keep SELL.

Bakkafrost (Hold, TP: NOK590.00) - Q1 beat driven by Faroes

Q1 operating EBIT was DKK710m, 5–7% above our estimate and consensus, with the beat mainly driven by Faroes Farming. Management comments suggest a continued strong biological performance in the sea for Faroes Farming in Q2. The 2024 harvest guidance was unchanged at 66kt from the Faroes and 25kt from the UK. We expect consensus 2024 EPS to come up 0–2% and a similar share price reaction today.

Q1 EBIT +2% on stellar Faroese performance

Tokmanni (Buy, TP: EUR17.00) - Q1e hurt by external setbacks

We are just shy of consensus Q1e clean EBIT, reflecting demand challenged by several external setbacks. However, we continue to view Tokmanni as an attractive countercyclical case amid weak consumer trends, with an unduly low valuation despite a sharp step-up in its growth profile since last year’s acquisition of DollarStore. We reiterate our BUY and EUR17 target price.

Alligator Bioscience (Buy, TP: SEK1.10) - OPTIMIZE-1 needs more patients

In connection with its Q1 report, Alligator Bioscience reported that the FDA wants to see more data from the low-dose cohort in OPTIMIZE-1 (15 more patients and recruitment has already started). This is due to Project Optimus within the FDA, and PK/PD data from the low-dose cohort should be available in Q1 2025. There is a risk that this added uncertainty could delay partnering discussions for mitazalimab, we believe. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to SEK1.10 (1.50).

Otovo (No_rec, TP: NOK) - Clouds still on the horizon

Needing to increase its activity meaningfully to cut its cash burn, soft order intake in Q1 leaves us concerned. With market prospects remaining weak, we consider one of the three following outcomes as likely: 1) a full take-over by the majority owners to restructure the company; 2) a sale to an industrial company; or 3) the stock remaining listed and existing owners carrying out a rights issue, resetting the equity value. With high uncertainty and a broad set of potential outcomes for the current equity, we have withdrawn our target price and recommendation.