Q1 trading update: Volumes 3% above

No good deed goes unpunished

Gets the short end of the stick

Wärtsilä (Buy, TP: EUR20.00) - Setbacks in Energy

Based on recent news flow relating to Energy and FX, we have cut our 2025–2027e clean EPS by 5% on average and our target price to EUR20 (22). We reiterate our BUY and continue to highlight Wärtsilä’s solid earnings quality and attractive valuation. The Q1 results are due on 25 April (no details available). Our forecast orders and clean EBIT are below post-Q4 consensus.

Solid growth momentum into 2025e

Helped by benign weather with few storms, we expect solid underwriting across the Nordic P&C sector for Q1, with underlying performance further supported by earned repricing momentum and abating claims inflation. The sector is trading at an attractive average 2026e P/E of c15.2x and we see solid capital distribution prospects. We reiterate our recommendations on all our covered sector names and highlight Tryg as our top pick.

The weekly navigator

From the past week, we highlight: 1) we expect FX and multiples headwinds to weigh heavily on Kinnevik’s Q1 report; 2) VEF’s NAV looks set to grow by low single digits QOQ in USD terms; and 3) Industrivärden is due to report Q1 results next week, ahead of which we highlight a more attractive near-term investment story in its main owner Lundbergs.