BerGenBio (Sell, TP: NOK0.05) - Our concerns remain

While opex fell sharply in 2023 and YOY in Q4, and management maintained the timeline for its BGBC016 study, we remain concerned about a lack of major share-price catalysts ahead of the next needed capital raise. We reiterate our SELL and NOK0.05 target price.

Northern Lights

BerGenBio (Sell, TP: NOK0.05) - Too little before it’s too late

Following the recent rights issue and detrimental terms for the stock, we remain concerned about the company’s ability to produce substantial share-price catalysts during its financial runway (we estimate until 2024e). We struggle to see the current phase Ib/IIa study producing results considered attractive enough for investors ahead of the next needed capital raise. We reiterate our SELL and have cut our target price to NOK0.05 (0.11).

Medistim (Hold, TP: NOK190.00) - Sales in Americas weaken

Revenues grew 3.5% YOY in Q1 (currency-neutral total sales grew 2.2%), below our estimate c6%. The EBIT margin of 24% was almost back to normal and in our view shows the low margin in Q4 2023 (16.4%) should be seen as a one-off. However, we remain concerned about revenue growth, especially in the Americas, after the fifth consecutive quarter of declining currency-neutral sales. Thus, while we reiterate our HOLD, we have lowered our 2024–2026e sales by c3–8% and cut our target price to NOK190 (210).

Catena (Buy, TP: SEK515.00) - Time to put the money to work

The Q1 results were solid in our view; although the vacancy rate rose, it was from a very low level, and was therefore of limited concern. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK515 (500). In our view, Catena has (too much) firepower following its last equity raise and we would like to see more M&A, project activity, or speedy reinvestment. Following the equity raise the stock looks highly valued on a 2025–2026e P/FFO of 21–19x, but that drops to 15–14x adjusted for earnings from our forecast recurring development gains.

Kesko (Hold, TP: EUR17.00) - Technical(ly) weak

Q1 disappointed due to Building & Technical Trade (BTT) profitability well below expectations. We continue to see a mixed case, with stable to gradually improving Grocery Trade (GT) but still-weak Building & Technical Trade. We reiterate our HOLD but have cut our target price to EUR17 (18), after lowering our 2024–2026e clean EBIT and DPS by c4%.