Renewable Weekly – 8 May 2024

This week, we look at key takeaways from GWEC's 2024 Global Wind Report.

Q1 likely just a bump in the road

Bonheur (Buy, TP: NOK275.00) - Limited knock-on effects from the weak Q1 results

Bonheur reported Q1 EBITDA well below expectations (25% below our estimate and 33% below consensus), but we see limited knock-on effects for the rest of the year. Hence, we have lowered our 2024e EBITDA by 5% on the weaker-than-expected Q1 results, and raised our 2025–2026e EBITDA by 2–1% on a weaker NOK. We reiterate our BUY and NOK275 target price, and see the stock trading at an attractive 28% discount to our NAV and a 15% discount to our target price.

Ultimovacs (Sell, TP: NOK4.00) - Slower recruitment, FOCUS in focus

Total operating expenses were NOK28.6m, and cash and cash equivalents were NOK220m at end-Q1 (NOK266.6m at end-Q4 2023). The company recently announced initiatives to extend the financial runway to Q4 2025. While data from the fully recruited FOCUS trial is expected in Q3, the number of new recruited patients in the DOVACC and LUNGVAC trials was lower in Q1 versus Q4 2023. We reiterate our SELL and NOK4 target price.

Loomis (Buy, TP: SEK425.00) - US strength, Euro weakness

Q1 saw still-strong organic growth, with improving US earnings leverage but still-weak European, and Loomis building further financial capacity, even as it executes on its share buyback programme. We have tweaked our forecasts, still viewing Loomis as a well-financed roll-up case, with the resources to drive sector consolidation and shareholder-friendly capital allocation, with its share buyback ambition renewed (SEK200m) for Q2. We reiterate our BUY and SEK425 target price.

Bravida (Buy, TP: SEK97.00) - Quality discount an opportunity

Bravida’s Q1 was mixed, with EBIT down 21% YOY, but still-solid order intake and FCF generation. While the Region Skåne governance failure seems to have been handled properly, we believe Bravida needs to rebuild its quality brand name. We still see a normalisation of the current valuation discount, and reiterate our BUY and SEK97 target price.