Too many moving parts

BW LPG (Buy, TP: NOK250.00) - Leveraging up into solid market

We believe the re-leveraged BW LPG, following its acquisition of 12 VLGCs, is well-placed to harvest solid earnings in what looks set to be a healthy freight market supported by limited 3% annualised fleet growth over the next eight quarters. With early signs of declining FOB premiums, we see potential for a return to shipowners’ historical share of the US-FE arbitrage, which we calculate results in a 24% earnings yield utilising the arbitrage as spot rate for 2025. We reinstate a recommendation with a BUY and NOK250 target price.

Vitrolife (Buy, TP: SEK280.00) - Underlying trends set to continue

Vitrolife stock has recovered nicely since its Q2 report (up c33% since the day before the report). We believe most of the Q2 trends that triggered the revaluation of Vitrolife remain, heading into the Q3 results. For the quarter, we are c1% below consensus on sales and c4% below on adj. EBITDA. We have increased our forecasts from 2025 and our target price to SEK280 (250). We reiterate our BUY.

Pick your contender

Following our ‘investment company weeks’ at DNB Markets in Stockholm, we give a brief update on our view of the sector and summarise our impressions from lunch presentations with 13 investment company CEOs. From a broader perspective, we note the increased investor interest in the sector, as well as the structurally lower discounts to NAV, albeit not in the VC-oriented companies. We continue to have Investor as our sector top pick, with additional BUYs on Latour, Kinnevik, VEF and Flerie.

Storytel (Buy, TP: SEK78.00) - Gross margin momentum

We are 7% above Modular Finance consensus Q3e adj. EBITDA on positive content mix and the full impact of recent cost actions. We have now seen the long-awaited shift in the investor base, but acknowledge that investors could still take a wait-and-see approach to Storytel’s new CEO (starts 1 October) and likely strategic review before there is a re-rating. We reiterate our BUY, with a trimmed SEK78 (80) target price; we continue to see a step-change in profitable growth and FCF generation at an undemanding valuation at a 2025e EV/EBITDA of 5x, P/E of 13x and OpFCF yield of 12%, whilst Storytel’...