BW LPG (Buy, TP: NOK241.00) - Arbitrage suggests upside potential
Ample US inventories have supported the arbitrage, now implying cUSD110k/day, and with deliveries set to slow (28 vessels due until end-H1 2026 (40 in 2023)), we see solid VLGC earnings potential. Assuming shipping captures the entire arbitrage rate, we calculate an average Q3–Q4 dividend yield of ~25%, and still see multiples expansion potential with the peer group trading at a 1.3x P/NAV, which would imply a value of NOK250/share for BW LPG. We reiterate our BUY, and have raised our target price to NOK241 (199).
DNB Markets is the investment banking arm of DNB Bank ASA and is focused primarily on the Nordic region, as well as internationally on niches such as global shipping, energy and related services, and seafood. DNB Markets offers services in FICC, Equities and Investment Banking advisory from offices in Oslo, Stockholm, London, Singapore and New York. Equity research coverage is offered on c250 Nordic companies. DNB was ranked no.2 in Extel Nordic Research 2017. The DNB Markets’ Credit and FICC Macro & FX Research teams are repeatedly highly rated by Prospera Nordic Institutional Investor Surveys.
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