Profit warning for Q4

Small Caps, Big Ideas – December 2024

Coor Service Management Holding AB: 1 director

A director at Coor Service Management Holding AB bought 30,000 shares at 34.760SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 59/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly showing Close periods where trading activity is restricted under listing rules...

Sagax (Hold, TP: SEK240.00) - 2026e P/FFO in line with sector

We expect a solid Q4e result, with adj. PFPMps YOY growth of 12% and 12-month rolling growth of 5%, marking an end to the declining growth rate. We have raised our 2025–2026e FFOps by 4%, on a reclassification of NP3 to an associated company. Despite its substantial P/NAV premium, Sagax is trading at a 2026e P/FFO (based on our M&A scenario) roughly in line with our broader peer group. We reiterate our HOLD but have cut our target price to SEK240 (260).

Wallenstam (Sell, TP: SEK40.00) - Interest-rate sensitive due to low-yielding asset base

We are broadly in line with consensus on Q4e PFPM. We forecast an asset value writedown of 2.5% QOQ (noting that Q4 is Wallenstam’s main value-revision quarter). We have cut our 2025–2026e FFOPS by 9% due to divestments and rising interest rates, to which the company is sensitive given its 2025e NIBD/EBIT of 17x. We reiterate our SELL, based on a too-rich P/FFO valuation, and have cut our target price to SEK40 (48).

Catena (Hold, TP: SEK490.00) - Decoupling from European peers persists despite weak performance

Compared with the Nordic sector, we consider Catena attractively valued at a 2025e P/FFO of 17.5x in combination with a very strong balance sheet – however, the valuation seems stretched versus European logistics peers. Going forward, we believe the swift drop in project capex (we forecast -c65% in 2025 YOY) could become a focal point for the market. We reiterate our HOLD and have cut our target price to SEK490 (550) on rising market interest rates.