DHT Holdings Minor model adjustments
We have updated our estimates following DHT’s Q1 report. Thus, we have raised our 2025e adj. EBITDA by 1%, while largely maintaining 2026–2027e. Supply-side fundamentals remain highly attractive, with a muted ~4% VLCC deliveries expected for 2025–2026 against an ageing fleet and further upside potential to a successful phasing out of vessels involved in illicit trades. On the demand side, we see support from OPEC+’s accelerated return of withheld volumes, while persistent US ‘maximum pressure’ on Iranian oil or a deal that releases Iranian volumes to the compliant fleet are both outcomes that should directly benefit the VLCC freight market, in our opinion. In sum, we find the potential risk skewed to the upside. We do not consider these changes to be material, and we have not changed our BUY recommendation. We have raised our target price from USD13.7 to USD14.1.
DNB Markets is the investment banking arm of DNB Bank ASA and is focused primarily on the Nordic region, as well as internationally on niches such as global shipping, energy and related services, and seafood. DNB Markets offers services in FICC, Equities and Investment Banking advisory from offices in Oslo, Stockholm, London, Singapore and New York. Equity research coverage is offered on c250 Nordic companies. DNB was ranked no.2 in Extel Nordic Research 2017. The DNB Markets’ Credit and FICC Macro & FX Research teams are repeatedly highly rated by Prospera Nordic Institutional Investor Surveys.
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