DHT Holdings Minor model adjustments

We have updated our estimates following DHT’s Q1 report. Thus, we have raised our 2025e adj. EBITDA by 1%, while largely maintaining 2026–2027e. Supply-side fundamentals remain highly attractive, with a muted ~4% VLCC deliveries expected for 2025–2026 against an ageing fleet and further upside potential to a successful phasing out of vessels involved in illicit trades. On the demand side, we see support from OPEC+’s accelerated return of withheld volumes, while persistent US ‘maximum pressure’ o...

"Increasingly a favourable supply story"

Estimates down on vessel sales

DHT Holdings (Buy, TP: USD13.70) - At the heart of the tanker festival

We maintain our positive stance on the VLCC segment with limited deliveries (~4% expected for 2025–2026) and an ageing fleet. Further, we see potential positive catalysts in successful enforcement of sanctions and a more aggressive phase-in of currently withheld OPEC+ volumes, both of which could noticeably expand the markets for compliant VLCCs. Further, spot markets are showing signs of improvement, with rates rising ~75% since DHT published its Q1 update. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut ou...

Another abrupt change

The US Trade Representative on 17 April published revised US port fees with significant changes to the initial proposal based on industry feedback. In its current form, the fees will primarily discourage use of Chinese-controlled maritime trade services to the US, and directly affect the use of Chinese-built vessels in US ports (with several considerable exemptions to avoid harm to US trade). The previous broader fees based on fleet composition and share of Chinese-built vessels has been scrappe...

‘The times they are a-changin’

The recurring theme at our 18th Energy & Shipping Conference was geopolitical uncertainty and a potential trade war, warranting a wait-and-see approach, particularly on the Trump 2.0 effect. The consensus view pointed to high asset values, with no rush to the yards, aligning with below-NAV valuations across most of our coverage. However, panellists generally saw less downside risk than the 25% average discount to steel for our Tanker, Dry Bulk and Gas coverage. Overall, the day highlighted uncer...

DHT Holdings Inc: 1 director

A director at DHT Holdings Inc sold 15,000 shares at 10.750USD and the significance rating of the trade was 61/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearl...

DHT Holdings Minor model adjustments

We have updated our estimates following DHT’s Q4 report. We still view the VLCC segment as attractive given strong fundamentals, with ~4% deliveries in 2025–2026e compared with ~23% of the fleet set to be 21+ years (average scrapping age since 2015) at end-2026. This, combined with potential catalysts such as sanctions and the Trump administration’s ‘maximum pressure’ policy on Iran could disrupt oil flows in favour of compliant shipowners, and further limit older vessels’ ability to extend thei...

Consensus is too pessimistic for '26e

Q4 slightly below, downside to cons in Q1

A playbook on US tariffs

As a response to recent news flow of potential tariffs and countermeasures, we highlight the main implications for the shipping sectors we cover. While the specifics remain uncertain, the below input might assist in gauging potential impacts of the disruptions.

DHT Holdings (Buy, TP: USD14.00) - Attractive VLCC risk/reward

We believe the VLCC market is already healthy, with potential catalysts near-term (driven by increased vessel sanctions and stricter enforcement) and longer-term, given we expect limited fleet growth (

2025 could be wild. Or not.