Energy Morning - 28 April 2025

Weekly news, topics & discussion

This week, Vår Energi reported Q1 results very much in line with expectations. The company also reaffirmed its 2025 guidance and maintained its dividend. Also, OKEA reported a solid Q1, with production and prices slightly above our estimates. While a technical goodwill impairment reduces its dividend basket for 2025, we view this as non-material, as we do not expect any dividends before 2027. Meanwhile, we are 5% below consensus on Q1e EBIT ahead of Equinor’s Q1 results on 30 April (07:00 CET), primarily on lower EPN liquids production.

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 25/04/2025

Panoro Energy (PEN NO)C; Target price of NOK49 per share: Reserves addition much larger than expected – YE24 2P reserves were independently estimated at 42.3 mmbbl (+7.6 mmbbl vs YE23, representing a Reserve Replacement Ration of 309%). This figure far exceeds our previous expectation of 34.5 mmbbl for YE24 2P reserves - an estimate that included a 4 mmbbl addition in 1H24 to counterbalance 2024 production. The higher than expected reserves addition is driven by robust reservoir performance in Gabon coupled with the conversion of contingent resources into 2P reserves in EG. In Gabon, YE24 WI 2...

Humana (Buy, TP: SEK52.00) - Growth agenda back in focus

The Q1 results were mixed, but with the financials now in good order, we see more of a growth focus ahead. We find management’s priorities logical, with our underlying forecast largely unchanged, but our 2025–2027e EPS cut by 6–2% on FX and non-cash items. We reiterate our BUY, but have trimmed our target price to SEK52 (53), focusing on Humana’s market opportunity, operating profile, financial outlook and valuation.

Lime Technologies (Sell, TP: SEK355.00) - Remain cautious

Softness in Expert Services kept organic growth at only 10%, and with the macroeconomic uncertainty, we see a risk that weaker growth will continue in the coming quarters. We reiterate our SELL and SEK355 target price.

Netel Group Holding (Buy, TP: SEK18.00) - Solid outlook for 2025

Q1 offered further signs of good progress towards reducing volatility and improving performances across its operations, albeit in a seasonally small (start-up) quarter. We still see solid demand fundamentals and Netel further rebuilding its financial capacity in 2025. Lowering its financial targets looks logical to us, despite triggering 12–13% cuts to our 2026–2027e EPS. We still like the stock (2025–2027e FCF yield of 13–23%), and reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to SEK18 (22).