Weathering through the storm

Dometic (Buy, TP: SEK75.00) - Factoring in a new (tougher) reality

Overall, Q3 was in line with the recent profit warning and consensus. However, we have updated our model (incorporating the profit warning and Q3 implications) and reduced adj. EBITA by c20% on average during 2024–2026e. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to SEK75 (100), as a result of our updated estimates. While the next few quarters are set to be tough, we believe this is reflected in the share price and that the risk/reward remains positive.

Q3 report roughly in line with pre-announcement

Nykode Therapeutics (Buy, TP: NOK4.00) - Set for Q3e after major setback

We believe the company will implement larger cuts in the organisation as well as other cost-preservation initiatives to further extend the financial runway following the termination of the collaboration with Genentech. Despite the extra uncertainty around the technology’s clinical potential following the termination (causing us to completely remove the NEO programme from our model until we see the clinical effect data from the N-02 trial), we believe the current valuation (well below Q2 cash) is too low compared to the value of the technology based on the results it has generated over the year...

TGS (Buy, TP: NOK130.00) - Housekeeping

By reducing its average interest rate from 11.5% to 8.5% and annual interest costs by ~USD20m, TGS completed its debt refinancing at slightly better terms than we expected, prompting minor positive revisions to our 2024–2025e FCF and EPS. We still see a strong near-term cash flow outlook with limited debt amortisation supporting its capacity to raise dividends meaningfully after 2025e even in a flat seismic market. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to NOK130 (125).

Edda Wind (Buy, TP: NOK30.00) - Well positioned

While EBITDA was broadly in line with expectations, the Q3 report gave early signs of improved operational reliability, which we believe will be key to narrowing the discount to underlying values (the stock is trading at 0.6x P/NAV). Recent contract awards (including a new 12+12-month contract announced with the results) have made the fleet fully booked until the 2025 summer season, and three of the four 2025 newbuild deliveries are now booked directly following yard delivery. We reiterate our BUY and NOK30 target price.