Dometic (Buy, TP: SEK60.00) - Another organic growth hit in Q1e

We forecast Q1 sales of SEK5,863m, with c-12% organic growth YOY and adj. EBITA of SEK590m, c10% below consensus. We have reduced our 2025–2027e adj. EBIT by c11% on average, due to updated FX and lowered underlying estimates. As a result, we have reduced our target price to SEK60 (70) but reiterate our BUY, given the positive risk/reward.

Set for spicy growth

Our recent field trip to India (visiting Volvo, Epiroc, Trelleborg, Autoliv and others) alongside our analysis suggests the country is set to take centre stage as a global manufacturing hub over the coming decade, shifting from being the sixth- to the third-largest end-market for the Swedish Industrial sector. India’s strong economic growth trajectory and favourable demographics mean the companies: 1) see double-digit growth as sustainable; 2) are pursuing manufacturing capacity expansions; and ...

Happier campers ahead

Dometic (Buy, TP: SEK70.00) - Step in the right direction

Overall, Q4 was stronger than expected, even after adjusting EBITA for a SEK63m refund. On the conference call, CEO Juan Vargues expressed caution about H1 demand, which we see as fair given market uncertainty. We have raised our 2025–2026e adj. EBITA by c1%, and reiterate our BUY and SEK70 target price. We continue to see a positive risk/reward.

Q4 report stronger than feared

(Republished) Q4 preview: soft end to soft year

Dometic (Buy, TP: SEK70.00) - Way forward becoming clearer

We forecast Q4 sales of SEK4,574m, with c-15% organic growth YOY and adj. EBITA of SEK267m, c3% below consensus. We have reduced our 2025–2026e adj. EBIT by c3% on average, due to updated FX (positive effect) and lowered underlying estimates. As a result, we have reduced our target price to SEK70 (75), but reiterate our BUY, given the low valuation and mid-2025e market improvement.

Cost savings, divestments and '27e margin target

Weathering through the storm

Dometic (Buy, TP: SEK75.00) - Factoring in a new (tougher) reality

Overall, Q3 was in line with the recent profit warning and consensus. However, we have updated our model (incorporating the profit warning and Q3 implications) and reduced adj. EBITA by c20% on average during 2024–2026e. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to SEK75 (100), as a result of our updated estimates. While the next few quarters are set to be tough, we believe this is reflected in the share price and that the risk/reward remains positive.

Q3 report roughly in line with pre-announcement

Expect broad-based softness

US consumers gearing up to spend in 2025

Recovery turned into new lows

Q3 profit warning

Further upside to margins, gearing tgt in reach

Soft sales, but some margin expansion. Leverage target reachable in H2'24e. Reiterate BUY and TP of SEK 95.

Dometic (Buy, TP: SEK100.00) - Light at the end of the tunnel

Overall, Q2 was in line with expectations. We note the recovery of the Service & Aftermarket business and the company’s margin strength in a tough market. We reiterate our BUY, and have raised our target price to SEK100 (98), expecting a continued positive risk/reward as Dometic faces easier comparables in H2.

Q2 results in line with expectations, leverage down q-o-q

Navigating the low tide: marine close to trough

A deep dive into the RV and Marine outlooks and recent revisions. Q2 preview: -8% org. growth and adj. EBITA of SEK 1,060m. We make minor estimate revisions, reiterate BUY at 9.9x EV/EBITA.

Dometic (Buy, TP: SEK98.00) - Tough market dynamics continue

We forecast Q2 sales of SEK7,620m, with -c10% organic growth YOY and adj. EBITA of SEK1,009m, c7% below consensus. We have reduced our 2024–2026e adj. EBIT by c2% on average, due to updated FX. Following our estimate and valuation changes, we have reduced our target price to SEK98 (100), but reiterate our BUY. We expect net debt/EBITDA to continue to decline this year.