Weathering through the storm

Dometic (Buy, TP: SEK75.00) - Factoring in a new (tougher) reality

Overall, Q3 was in line with the recent profit warning and consensus. However, we have updated our model (incorporating the profit warning and Q3 implications) and reduced adj. EBITA by c20% on average during 2024–2026e. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to SEK75 (100), as a result of our updated estimates. While the next few quarters are set to be tough, we believe this is reflected in the share price and that the risk/reward remains positive.

Q3 report roughly in line with pre-announcement

Expect broad-based softness

US consumers gearing up to spend in 2025

Recovery turned into new lows

Q3 profit warning

Further upside to margins, gearing tgt in reach

Soft sales, but some margin expansion. Leverage target reachable in H2'24e. Reiterate BUY and TP of SEK 95.

Dometic (Buy, TP: SEK100.00) - Light at the end of the tunnel

Overall, Q2 was in line with expectations. We note the recovery of the Service & Aftermarket business and the company’s margin strength in a tough market. We reiterate our BUY, and have raised our target price to SEK100 (98), expecting a continued positive risk/reward as Dometic faces easier comparables in H2.

Q2 results in line with expectations, leverage down q-o-q

Navigating the low tide: marine close to trough

A deep dive into the RV and Marine outlooks and recent revisions. Q2 preview: -8% org. growth and adj. EBITA of SEK 1,060m. We make minor estimate revisions, reiterate BUY at 9.9x EV/EBITA.

Dometic (Buy, TP: SEK98.00) - Tough market dynamics continue

We forecast Q2 sales of SEK7,620m, with -c10% organic growth YOY and adj. EBITA of SEK1,009m, c7% below consensus. We have reduced our 2024–2026e adj. EBIT by c2% on average, due to updated FX. Following our estimate and valuation changes, we have reduced our target price to SEK98 (100), but reiterate our BUY. We expect net debt/EBITDA to continue to decline this year.

Dometic (Buy, TP: SEK100.00) - Recovery taking time

Overall, Q1 was below consensus, driven by surprisingly weak performance for Land Vehicles Americas where Dometic said the competitive environment was tough. We have cut our 2024–2026e adj. EBIT by c3% on average and reduced our target price to SEK100 (105). We reiterate our BUY, seeing c25% upside potential from the current share price to our target price, but have pushed a recovery out in time.

Dometic (Buy, TP: SEK105.00) - Motoring on

We estimate Q1 sales of SEK6,614m and adj. EBIT of SEK595m (adj. EBITA of SEK745m). Q1 tends not to be a seasonally strong cash flow quarter and we expect end-Q1 net debt/EBITDA of 2.8x. We have increased our 2024–2026e adj. EBIT by c4% on average, reflecting updated FX and somewhat higher profitability. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK105 (100) on updated valuation and estimates.

Dometic Group AB: 1 director

A director at Dometic Group AB bought 3,081 shares at 78.302SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 50/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clear...

Dometic (Buy, TP: SEK100.00) - US RV trough probably behind us

Q4 is a small quarter, but overall was below our estimates and consensus, driven by weaker than expected organic growth and margins. We have cut our 2024–2025e adj. EBIT by c6% on average and have lowered our target price to SEK100 (105). The US RV OEM trough has seemingly passed and sales in Service and Aftermarket (including within Marine) continue to improve. We reiterate our BUY.

Dometic (Buy, TP: SEK105.00) - Resilience in a small quarter

We estimate Q4 sales of SEK5,600m and adj. EBIT of SEK405m (adj. EBITA of SEK555m). We expect solid cash flow generation and net debt/EBITDA of 2.8x (2.9x in Q3). We have cut our 2023–2025e adj. EBIT by c5% on average, largely due to updated FX. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK105 (96) on among others after rolling forward our valuation. The results are due on 31 January.

Dometic (Buy, TP: SEK96.00) - Motoring through the storm

Q3 cash flow was strong and margin resilience impressive (again), as costs are being addressed swiftly. Dometic has proved its credentials in a tough market, in our view. After making only small estimate changes, we reiterate our BUY and SEK96 target price.

Dometic (Buy, TP: SEK96.00) - Cash and margin resilience

We estimate Q3 sales of SEK7,254m and adj. EBIT of SEK792m (adj. EBITA of SEK942m). We expect solid cash flow generation and net debt/EBITDA of 3.0x (3.2x in Q2). We have raised our 2023–2025e adj. EBIT by c2% on average, and reiterate our BUY and SEK96 target price. The Q3 results are due on 26 October (time not known), with a conference call at 10:00 CET.

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