Cost savings, divestments and '27e margin target

Weathering through the storm

Peab (Hold, TP: SEK80.00) - JV accounting gains

We have increased our 2024e EPS by 26% on the announced gain of SEK0.4bn in Q4 following the deal with Balder to break up the Centur JV. Despite the Q4 transactional gain in Property Development (PD), we continue to see downside risk to consensus on bullish EPS expectations longer-term. We reiterate our HOLD, finding a better risk/reward in peers, but have raised our target price to SEK80 (76) on updated peer valuations.

Namibia uncertainty with Shell write-down

Shell is reportedly due to make a write-down in Namibia as discoveries are estimated to be commercially unavailable. Shell has been among the most active oil companies in Namibia, with five discoveries announced, and there have been expectations for future developments. Hence, we see the write-down as a setback for future development activity (which consumes more oil services volumes than exploration). As Total has appeared more optimistic on future developments in Namibia in the past, this setback (seemingly due to weak geology) is likely to increase focus on Total’s comments related to the p...

Ncc (Buy, TP: SEK190.00) - Two divestments for SEK5.8bn

NCC recently announced two divestments of commercial real estate developments for SEK5.8bn, of which SEK2.2bn will be recorded in Q4 2024 and SEK3.6bn in Q2 2028e when the development is delivered to the client. Hence, we have raised our 2024e EPS by c14.5% (and are above consensus for Q4e). We reiterate our BUY and SEK190 target price.