Elopak (Hold, TP: NOK24.00) - Rawboard spoils the fun
We expect a Q4 adj. EBITDA of EUR33m (results due at 07:00 CET on 21 February), in line with consensus, marked by pricing tailwinds and a declining COGS related to polyethylene, aluminium and electricity. However, Elopak renegotiated rawboard contracts in Q4, at which point index prices were up ~26% YOY, prompting further cost headaches for 2023e, as rawboard constitutes ~50% of Elopak’s COGS in a ‘normal’ year. We have cut our 2023e EPS by 8% due to higher cost estimates but forecast a more normalised 2024. We have raised our target price to NOK24 (22), following multiples expansion among peers, and reiterate our HOLD.
DNB Markets is the investment banking arm of DNB Bank ASA and is focused primarily on the Nordic region, as well as internationally on niches such as global shipping, energy and related services, and seafood. DNB Markets offers services in FICC, Equities and Investment Banking advisory from offices in Oslo, Stockholm, London, Singapore and New York. Equity research coverage is offered on c250 Nordic companies. DNB was ranked no.2 in Extel Nordic Research 2017. The DNB Markets’ Credit and FICC Macro & FX Research teams are repeatedly highly rated by Prospera Nordic Institutional Investor Surveys.
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