Elopak (Hold, TP: NOK37.00) - Q2 broadly in line with Q1

We estimate Q2 adj. EBITDA to be relatively flat QOQ at EUR46m (~3% above Bloomberg consensus), based on stable volumes and another strong quarter for Americas. We forecast a minor ~50bp reversal of last quarter’s historically high EBITDA margins, and an Americas adj. EBITDA of EUR16m. With Elopak currently trading at 2024–2025e P/Es of ~10.5–11.9x, a ~4% premium to Nordic paper and packaging peers, and an implied dividend yield of 4.5%, we see limited upside potential ahead. We reiterate our HOLD and NOK37 target price.

Leading indicators

OECD: The indicator points up from a low level. US: The indicator points up (housing starts, monetary policy, interest rates, real FX). EU: The indicator points up from a low level (bond yields, stock market). Japan: The indicator is neutral (monetary policy, housing starts).

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Yubico Minor model adjustments

Ahead of Yubico’s Q2 results (due on 15 August), we expect still-strong 48% organic bookings growth YOY, with EBIT 4% above a thin Bloomberg consensus (stripping out our contribution). Amid a recent escalation of large-scale cyber threats (United Health’s attack, estimated to cost ~USD1.5bn, and CDK Global’s attack, which affected 15,000 North American car dealerships), the need for modern, phishing-resistant MFA has become increasingly evident, and we expect notable strength from financial services. We have lowered our 2024–2025e EPS by 5–0% (2%-points of which comes from FX) to factor in the...

Storytel Minor model adjustments

Ahead of Storytel’s Q2 results (due on 30 July) – which we expect to show the first positive net-profit quarter since 2016 – we have calibrated our 2024–2025e adj. EPS (by 2–0%), reflecting updated FX and a revenue mix shift in Non-Nordics. We do not consider these changes material, and we have not changed our BUY recommendation. We have lowered our target price to SEK80 (81). Q2e adj. EBITDA 8% above consensus. Despite the fierce competitive environment in the lower-price segment in Sweden, we are 8% above post-Q1 Visible Alpha consensus on Q2e adj. EBITDA, and remain 8–14% above Storytel’s 2...

Nokia Minor model adjustments

Ahead of Nokia’s Q2 results (due on 18 July), we are 15% above post-Q1 Infront consensus on non-IFRS EBIT, driven by the gross margin on positive mix. We have reduced our 2024e EPS by 1% (in line with consensus) due to FX headwinds. We do not consider these changes to be material, and we have not changed our HOLD recommendation. We have raised our target price to EUR3.6 (3.3).